NQ

NQH9 2-h  PLAN: short NQM9.

2009-03-13 Market Watch: weekly analysis

[Last weekly analysis].  This week the market has risen from the ashes and bounced back up.

Overview of World Markets and Sectors

All markets start to consolidate or bounce back up a little bit, while the emerging market is still ahead of all others.

world markets weekly relative strength

EEM (emerging market ETF) weekly

The next chart shows the MSCI World/EAFE/Emerging Market, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 index.  Nothing really interesting.

Major indices, commodities, and US dollar are shown in the next chart.  All markets are doing well, especially the crude oil starts to look attractive.

Sector overview chart.  Notice that XLF, XLK, XLI, and XLB went up on decreasing volume, and closed with a black candle.  Over the short term, these sectors look bearish.

SPX

The wave 3 of (5) has completed in the last week.  Now wave 4 of (5) has started.

On the hourly chart, it seems the wave A of 4 has probably completed.  The preliminary target of wave B will be around 725 or lower.

No update to the P&F chart.

BGZ hourly

XLF and SKF

SKF has found a short-term bottom and should go up in the next week.

SKF daily SKF hourly

Currency Futures and Forex

US dollar index:  The trend is down, however a rebound is due.

USD/SGD: downtrend in the intermediate term.

USD/CAD: downtrend

Commodities

Crude oil: the intermediate term bottom has in place.  Buy on dip.

weekly daily

Gold: short-term uptrend

gold daily Gold futures

2009-03-12 Market Watch

SPX daily, wave counting, wave A of 4 is about to finish

SPX hourly. Pull back target (if we get it) is around 710.

The short term down trend of SKF will end very soon.

SKF daily, long under 130 SKF hourly

Crude oil weekly

ES 5-min

2009-03-11 Market Watch

SPX daily, wave counting, wave 3 of (5) is unfolding.

Light Crude weekly, bullish CLJ9 hourly

SPX hourly, likely the end of A

XLF hourly

SKF hourly -- bounce back? SKF hourly

2009-03-10 Market Watch

SPX daily wave counting, wave 4 has started.

CLJ9 hourly

BGZ hourly

SKF daily SKF hourly

Nothing really interesting.  The market is extremely overbought, and a pullback is due.

2009-03-09 Market Watch

今天SPX下跌1%，没有突破周五的低点。石油和金融表现比较好。从波浪上看，我认为3 of (5)随时结束，4随时可能展开。

SPX daily, wave counting

值得关注的是石油。持续几个月的下降趋势线已经破了。反弹行情正在悄悄展开。

WTIC weekly USO daily

/CL daily  DXO daily

这个月份的石油期货换仓是我见过最正常最看好的：

CLK9, Apr 2009CLJ9, mar 2009

美元期货从周五大幅度上涨到89.97，目前还没有下去的意思。但从日线图上看，美元回调是必然的。注意美元上涨、欧元下跌，然而大盘并没有被拉下水。最近的Treasury-bill/note没有很大幅度的波动。黄金回调2.15%，仍然在上升通道中。从这些情况看，市场情绪良好。

YG daily

金融板块今天终于上涨，从5分钟图上看，上方阻力还没有突破，周五的收盘点保卫的比较好，盘尾有抄底现象，因此谨慎看好。SKF则关注250处的阻力线。

XLF 5-min

从002图上看，大盘情况不是很乐观，基本上是冲高失败的。STO是买入信号。003上的中期信号都是卖出，上面的几个短期信号比较乐观。103和104都中性。Nasdaq表现稍微差一些。281上的CPC又开始降低，很可能有赌大盘近期上涨的资金，他们是否再次成为冤大头，让我们拭目以待。

我的感觉是，短期低点很进了。市场的中期开始趋于乐观，后来大盘肯定还会创新低，但板块之间的分化和个股之间的两极分化会越来越严重，可能会出现石油带动大盘，同时美元带动商品的趋势，金融也会逐渐稳定下来。