2008-11-07 Market Watch: weekly analysis

Here is the last weekly analysis.  Obama was elected as the 44th US president, and the biggest uncertainty was gone.  Now the market is at a new critical level and will likely have a big swing in the coming week.

Market Overview

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The volatility is going up again which can be see on the VIX daily chart:

(VIX daily) (Matthew's VIX long term chart)

The capital market is improving further while the stock market was selling off.

(TED spread)

The following chart shows the MSCI World index, MSCI EAFE index, MSCI Emerging Market, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 index.  So far no market can go above MA20 for too long.

Major indices, commodities, and US dollar are shown in the following chart.  Watch the MA200 on US dollar, crude oil, and commodities.

Sector overview chart:  Nothing promising.

Glance of major indices and bullish percent: They are turning.

Wave counting

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SPX: [left] overview of waves; [right] close up.  Wave are in wave iv of wave 3.

(overview) (close up)

The best scenario is to continue the reversal on the last Friday and reach 1070, then start the next wave.

(SPX 60-min)

SKF (no wave counting) no signal now.

Forex

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USD/CAD: recovering.  The previous target of 1.1 in the near term doesn't change.

USD/SGD: in consolidation.

USD/JPY: hopefully it can recover a bit further, however the primary trend is still down.  The intraday chart [right] looks like a consolidation, however the new downtrend may have started.

(weekly) (60-day 2-hour)

USD/EUR: the consolidation is approaching an end and a new rally is going to start soon.

Commodities

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Gold (continuous adjusted): Here is the monthly chart of gold price since 1974.  It's still at a key support/resistance level.

Crude oil (continuous adjusted)

The following chart [left] shows the adjusted crude oil price since 1983.  It dropped to Fib 61.8% precisely.

(CL1700 monthly) ($WTIC weekly)

Matthew's chart

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INDU - weekly long term: the counting is different from mine but the big picture seems alright.

INDU Weekly close up

Dow daily TRIX: mid-term buy signal

SPX LT Stochastics

S&P 500 Projection

S&P500 trend chart

SPX daily TRIX: buy signal

 

NASI 1 year: mid-term buy signal

$CRX - Commoditiy Related Equity Index: wait

SSO system: long

 

SDS system: short

2008-11-06 Market Watch

The SPX daily chart looks the same almost everyday.  The biggest change is the modification of wave iii of wave 3, originally I was thinking a much more violent one.  Anyway I just keep reading them and see how it evolves.

SPX daily: if we don't consider the internal structure of the pullback, now it has reached a level where it can gracefully reverse (the yellow horizontal line was drawn yesterday of course).  If it does reverse tomorrow then 1070+ is a perfect target of this wave iv of wave 3.

(bird eye) (close up)

One more SPX chart:

USD/JPY: more range bounding.  Pay attention to the intraday chart of USD/JPY.

(daily)   (2-hour)

TED spread: it looks quite healthy, so the selling-off isn't that bearish compared with October one.  Personally I am not pessimistic just because of the election -- look at this chart.

SKF: It has reached an important level -- see the daily chart.  At the same time, it is not ok to short it because it can reach higher, and then it will be a short -- 60-min chart.

(daily) (60-min)

More charts...

INDU 60-min: reached Fib 61.8%, bottom-fishing...don't know if that's smart money or dumb money.  The chart doesn't look like the selling off is going to stop here.  It should consolidate a while first.

(waves 12345 are sub-waves of wave iii on daily chart, but this is INDU)

In the very short term (15-min charts), today's selling-off is questionable and a bounce might be coming -- check out the ultrashort ETF's.

(SKF 15-min) (SDS 15-min)

Of course the 60-min charts look not so encouraging and one should not against the trend, i.e., it is okay to lock the profit but unsafe to catch the falling knife.

For me, the most important thing is: we are in wave iv of 3.

2008-11-05 Market Watch

SPX daily:  finally we got the pullback, i.e., b of wave iv.  The target is roughly 910-925 on the daily chart.

INDU 60-min: will the selling off stop tomorrow? Unlikely, from either waves or pattern's perspective.

(INDU) (SPX)

SKF daily: what a nice chart!  It will be a short after one or two days.

USD/JPY: looking forward to more range bounding.

2008-11-04 Market Watch

SPX daily: it is very clear that we are in the wave iv of primary wave 3.  But I don't understand why this wave has such a weird internal structure.  Should the pullback (b of wave v) come late, SPX could easily break 1070 before the next leg down.

(full wave)  (close up)

Although the waves on the daily chart look perfectly reasonable, the estimation of starting point of wave b of wave iv of primary wave 3 is a guesswork at the time being.  One can see that 985 became a support from a resistance since today.

Intraday chart:

(SPX 60-min) (INDU 60-min)

It looks very overbought.  The reason why I check the INDU chart is because it has volume, and I don't trust the volume of ETF's.  It can be seen that the pattern favors a pullback, in fact the pullback can happen at any time and it could be violent considered the extreme strength and volume pattern.  However, do remember that we are in wave iv and there will be a new high.

SKF daily:

(SKF daily) (XLF 60-min)

It is very possible that SKF will bounce back up very soon.  The exact entry point is unknown but the current level is safe.

USD/JPY: watch out...