Update to the special report.
BOGNONBR: Non-borrowed reserves of depository institutions. Now it becomes even worse.
TERMAUC: Term Auction Credit. There is no update on the website.
MULT: M1 Money Multiplier. It dived even further and there is no improvement at all.
BASENS: St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base. It is out of control.
For explanation of the chars, read the special report. My conclusion is that, the economy is going down, no sign of recovery at the moment.
Here is the last weekly analysis. Now we got a short-term rally, a really violent one. My strategy is changed to short on rally of ultrashort ETF's cautiously -- in another words short-term long.
Market Overview
The volatility dropped down in this week although it is still very high. On the right it's Matthew's VIX chart.
TED spread didn't change so much but it looks better than the last few weeks.
The following chart shows the MSCI World index, MSCI EAFE index, MSCI Emerging Market, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 index. One can see that almost all markets are bouncing back.
Major indices, commodities, and US dollar are shown in the following chart. Stocks seem being improved, but commodities are still at a low level.
Sector overview chart: all sectors look identical, there is no clear winner.
Glance of major indices and bullish percent: they look like mid-term long, but I am not convinced.
Wave Counting
SPX: [left] overview of waves; [right] close up. Wave are in wave iv of wave 3.
QQQQ: consistent with SPX.
SKF: bounce over 140 is a short.
INDU 60-min and SPX 60-min:
Forex
USD/CAD: the recent crash and violent rebound have invalidated the previous wave counting. Now it has approached to a resistance level. My feeling is that it may go back to 1.1 in the near term.
USD/SGD: approaching to a resistance.
USD/JPY: it is recovering but don't forget the primary trend.
USD/EUR: the game is paused but not over yet.
Commodities
Gold (continuous adjusted): Here is the monthly chart of gold price since 1974. It's at a key support/resistance level.
Crude oil (continuous adjusted)
The following chart [left] shows the adjusted crude oil price since 1983. It dropped to Fib 61.8% precisely.
Matthew's charts
INDU daily: If it can break the upper edge of the consolidation region, it will be quite bullish. Note the TRIX has given a signal.
SPX TRIX: bullish.
NASI: mid-term signal is almost there.
SDS system: signal is short.
Others
EWZ: short! so is FXI. Many ETF's are due for a pullback in the beginning of the next week.
SPX wave counting update:
Forex: USD/JPY looks fine. USD/EUR looks bearish.
USD/CAD:
Matthew's charts:
VIX: looks much better.
Dow 60-min: should the STO(14,3) cross up and down again, the down trend will be started.
$INDU daily: bullish
$COMPQ: bullish
$NASI: no signal yet.
SPY TRIX: yes, it crossed. Wait for confirmation.
SSO system: time to short the ultra short.
SPX 15-min: head and shoulders.
USD/JPY: very bullish!
USD/EUR:
USD/CAD:
SPX daily: in wave iv of major 3. Mid-term bullish trend unconfirmed. Looking at the upside.
SKF: short at about 155.50 if it can reach there.
