Here is the last weekly analysis. Last week the market bounced back up sharply. The intermediate term trend has likely reversed, and the primary strategy is no longer short now.
Market Overview
The volatility is heading down now. TED spread is steadily low, which is consistent with the primary trend.
The following chart shows the MSCI World index, MSCI EAFE index, MSCI Emerging Market, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 index. No comments.
Major indices, commodities, and US dollar are shown in the following chart. Commodities are still quite weak.
Sector overview chart: it seems all sectors are due for an immediate pullback.
Glance of major indices and bullish percent: trend is up.
Focus
SPX: [left] wave 3 has finished.
SKF: Brilliant! It will probably go up again, and let's short it again! Everyone should know that, shorting SKF is intrinsically different from longing UYG. If anyone doesn't understand, think again.
Forex
USD/CAD: it did go down. I expect it goes down more in the next two weeks.
USD/SGD (inverted): it bounced back up as expected last week.
USD/JPY (2-hour): it pulled back as expected. However there is no direction now.
Commodities
Gold (continuous adjusted): Here is the monthly chart of gold price since 1974. Up trend is unchanged.
Crude oil (continuous adjusted)
The following chart [left] shows the adjusted crude oil price since 1983. No reason to be optimistic.
Matthew's charts
VIX long term chart: wow, buy signal again?
INDU - weekly long term: nothing interesting.
Dow daily TRIX: buy signal.
$CRX - Commoditiy Related Equity Index:
SSO system: breakout?
Matthew's charts in this two weeks are not very insightful, in my opinion.
