Sunday, January 27, 2008

Weekly chart reading of my holdings and option unerlyings

Nikkei 225: last week I thought it's in a down trend, and this week it has dived to a very low level. Now there is a red hammer with very deep shadow, it seems that a reversal is due (low reliable bullish signal). However STO has not crossed above 20 yet, so confirmation is needed. On the daily chart both the STO and volume is up so over the short term the rebounce is expected. Before 1 Feb I expect the index is below 14470, on 1 Feb it will be 14200 to 14600.

HSI: last week I expected it went down, now it has formed a shallow hammer with big shadow. The index level is at the bottrom of Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart, so there will be a rebounce. On the other hand, the weekly chart shows STO is crossing down to 50 and this hints a big down in the near future. Let's see how it goes. On the daily chart 26k is a resistance, 19.5k and 22k are two supports. I expect it at best goes up to 25.5k (I wish 28k is even possible), but from the wave it seems on 29 Jan it will be 26.3k and on 1 Feb it will dive to 24.8k.

UYG: weekly charts is a bit bullish but the daily chart is not optimistic. Yesterday is clearly a bearish confirmation since the volume is down after a doji. I expect on 1 Feb the highest level is 34.65 and it can go as slow as 28.3.

SKF: the candlestick pattern is rather bullish, the volume is up, but STO is crossing down 50, so the signals are mixed.

INTC: STO is up but volume is down. I expect it goes down, and on 1 Feb it is below 20. Before that the highest level is 21.8.

AAPL: the weekly chart is very bearish considered that both volume and STO are down. Compare with last August, now it has broken EMA(200), so it can easily go further down to under 120.

DPTR: last week I expected that it went down to ~18 and possibly 14. Now it got stuck at 18-19 which is a support level. It can go further down but I have closed the put position since the profit will be marginal.

COF: last week I said it's going down sharply and the target price was unknown. Now it's going up. Let's see if the trend can be sustained.

PHM: last week the trend had reversed now it's very bullish. On the daily chart it has reached the upper edge of the Bollinger Bands, and the candlestick patterns seem it will downward corrected.

AMD: last week I said the nearest target is 10-12.5 now it hasn't reached that yet. From the daily candlestick pattern it will go down a bit in the next few days, however both STO and volume are going up. The weekly chart is also bullish. So the overal trend is still bullish.

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