Last week I estimated that $INDU would have a small rally to ~12530, then it would go down. This has been confirmed. On Feb 13, $INDU closed at 12552.24, and the highest point is 12627.76 which was lower than 12720.
Now the triangle pattern has fully formed and a breakout is due on the next trading day. The volume is shrinking, so is the price range. It seems so obvious that the previous trend will continue, i.e., the next week the market will go down.
However, will the market still go along this direction when most people have realized it? In this triangle pattern, the up days had heavier volume which is suspicious. Therefore I suspect if the market will give a surprise to have a upward breakout.
Nevertheless if the market goes down further it may dive to ~11200 at least, which is lower than previous low, and of course very scary. I hope it won't happen.
Tuesday is critical. If the market goes under 12200, the down trend will be confirmed.
No comments:
Post a Comment