Tuesday, March 11, 2008

GG: short/put


Look at the above chart:
  • OBV signal provides a perfect entry point of either short or long. Look at red arrows for long entry points, and blue arrows for short entry points.
  • In the near term GG will likely touch the fine blue trend line. Therefore the target price is about 39.
March option trading plan: following spread for a credit of $1.05
  • short GG Mar 42.5 call;
  • long GG Mar 45 call;
breakeven: 43.50 (current price 43.13). max profit=105 when GG<=42.5, max loss=145 when GG>=45.

Open this position when GG >=43, close it when GG <=40 or let it expire.

April option trading plan: following spread for a credit of $1.14
  • short GG Apr 42.5 call;
  • long GG Apr 45 call;
breakeven 43.64. max profit=114, max loss=136.

Long put: long July 40 put, bid/ask=3.1/3.2, theoretical value=3.725, delta=-0.337.

One can also short, but I don't think long put is a good idea because current IV at 53.71 is not very low, and this stock isn't very weak either.

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