Thursday, October 02, 2008

2008-10-02 Market Watch

Every time Wall Street will act differently and give you surprise.  There is no doubt the $700B bailout will be passed by the House.  The question is, however, how the market will create a new order in a dramatically different time.  Will the people on the street feel confident about the economic condition and start to invest again? I doubt.  Will the money injected into the financial sector stimulate the economy on a sustainable basis?  I don't know.  I insist the previous outlook, which is bullish in the near term and bearish over the intermediate and long term.  After the bailout plan is passed, hopefully there is no new uncertainty on the horizon.

SPX 60-min:

spx

XLF 60-min:

xlf

QQQQ 60-min:

qqqq

In summary, we are going to see a new low in the near future.

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No chart for SSCC/TAN/POT/EWZ.  A few things to be noticed:

  • while the broad market is no good, it is really tough to pick a "good" sector;
  • solar might go up due to FA;
  • commodities have entered into a bear market.  It might bounce back up, but that will be temporary;
  • Although the oil price is dropping, the transportation sector plummets even more.  And the lowering oil price is no longer a positive news for the broad market.

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