Here is the weekly analysis in the last weekend. During the past week SPX was walking along the wave iv and the nature of corrective wave has made the trading much more challenging.
Market Overview
Volatility is still high: Take a look at the daily chart of $VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) [following left]:
Since Sep 29th, VIX has been stayed above ~37.5. From the 60-min chart [above right], the trend has not reversed, which seems obvious because the volatility of most stocks are still high.
TED spread is declining although it is still very high (see the following 6-month chart [left] and 5-year chart [chart]).
The following chart shows the MSCI World index, MSCI EAFE index, MSCI Emerging Market, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 index. Once again markets all around the world is near or has reached a new low despite of strong government interventions.
Major indices, commodities, and US dollar are shown in the following chart. No significant improvement over the last week.
On the Sector overview chart, no one seems much better than others.
On the glance of major indices and bullish percent, all trends are still pointing down but bullish percent indices seem going up.
Wave counting
SPX:
Since the last weekend, wave iv of 3 started and on the chart it is clearly a corrective wave. In my opinion, wave iv isn't finished yet and the target is about 1074. Afterward,SPX will dive down again to reach the last bear market low at about 768.
XLF:
The picture is unchanged. New low is ahead of us.
SKF has played out... while UYG is still moving in the down channel.
QQQQ is interesting. Wait for the wave v, don't be fooled.
Others
Price Channels of major indices look the same as last week. No update.
Currencies: No update.
USD/CAD wave counting:
USD/SGD:
Commodities:
Gold price is going down. Note the horizontal line at the bottom denotes a long-term support/resistance.
The crude oil price is declining and the up-channel has broken now [following left]. On the right chart it seems the oil price will go down to 55~65 before getting a firm support.
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