Saturday, November 15, 2008

2008-11-14 Market Watch: weekly analysis

Here is the last weekly analysis.

Market Overview


The volatility is still high [left].  Previously it seemed turning down but now it bounced back up.  The capital market isn't becoming worse which is promising [right:TED spread].

image (VIX 2-year)  image (TED 1-year)

The following chart shows the MSCI World index, MSCI EAFE index, MSCI Emerging Market, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 index.  Note that: mainland China market is approaching the MA50; we have seen the first higher high in November.

image

Major indices, commodities, and US dollar are shown in the following chart.  Nothing interesting.

image

Sector overview chart: another boring chart... hopefully it's a bottoming pattern.

image

Glance of major indices and bullish percent:

image

Wave counting 


SPX: [left] overview of waves; [right] close up.  Wave are in wave iv of wave 3, I believe.  Upside target: 970-1000.

image image

SKF: shorting.  Read yesterday's chart.  The signal has been confirmed.

Forex


USD/CAD: no update.

USD/SGD: no update.

USD/JPY: no update to the long term chart.  There should be a big move soon.

image

USD/EUR: correction is coming.

image

Commodities


Gold: big picture is still the same.  No update.

Crude oil: reached the target on the weekly chart, however it has not reversed yet.

image

Matthew's charts


VIX long term chart:

image

INDU - weekly long term: no update.

INDU Weekly close up: no update.

Dow daily TRIX: still mid-term buy signal.

SPX LT Stochastics: no update.

S&P 500 Projection: no update.

S&P500 trend chart: no update.

SPX daily TRIX:signal is the same.

NASI 1 year: mid-term buy signal but overbought.

$CRX - Commoditiy Related Equity Index: wait for STO.

SSO system: still long.

SDS system: still short.

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