[Last weekly analysis]. In this week, the market bounced back up sharply on the good news and then ended with another red candle. Compare with the last week, the loss is not too much, however the trend is still pointing down. Today marks the end of first month in 2009, see how bad the situation is on the monthly chart. Do you really believe this is a trend reversal pattern? Think again.
Overview of World Markets and Sectors
On the weekly chart of world markets, there is nothing new, the world keeps sinking. Relative to other parts of the world, the US market is still very weak.
The next chart shows the MSCI World/EAFE/Emerging Market, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 index. The last market to drop is probably SSEC.
Major indices, commodities, and US dollar are shown in the next chart. Dow and transport look very weak, gold and dollar are strong, while the oil and commodities may roll over.
Sector overview chart. Although financial sector bounced backed but it still looks very weak. Industrials and materials, consumer staples are weak too. Energy sector is consolidating, while the health care and utilities seem fine.
SPX
Compare the following chart with the chart in the previous weekly analysis, one can find that the scenario (B) played out nicely.
No update to the P&F chart.
The market went much higher than the estimation made in the last week based on the hourly chart. On the next chart, it seems the market should take a rest to let the moving averages catch up.
XLF and SKF
The dead cat's rebound turned out to be massive and almost killed SKF, the outlook on SKF was correct. The signal on SKF was a buy however I overlooked it. New trend has started, the game on SKF is buy on dip again.
Forex
USD/CAD: no update
USD/SGD: a pullback is due.
EUR/USD: Down trend is not finished yet although a weak rebound might happen soon.
Commodities
GOLD: on the very long time frame, gold looks trending up.
On the daily chart, the ascending channel is still valid, and it has broken out. So we have to respect the uptrend.
Crude oil: technically oil is deeply oversold even on the monthly chart. Over the short term there is no trend and it can break out at either direction.
Matthew's charts
VIX long term chart: signal reversed, it's time to short the market.
Dow daily TRIX: reversed to sell signal.
SPX LT Stochastics: bottomed out. buy. Slow STO was rejected by 20.
S&P 500 Projection: wave 4 finished. Wait for new low.
SPX daily TRIX: same as INDU.
NASI 1 year: sell signal confirmed.
$CRX - Commoditiy Related Equity Index: buy signal has been confirmed.
SSO system: sell.
SDS system: buy.
put,call and put,call 10 day: no bottom yet.
Ideas
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