SPX daily: today the market declined a little bit. Fortunately wave 1 is still intact since SPX didn’t really make a significant new high. Zooming in the chart, we can see that the market actually consolidated and the technical indicators were corrected.
On the hourly chart, the overbought market seems tired. Negative divergence appears on both MACD and RSI. However it’s still wandering above the support level at 780. I’m not going to say the upside room is depleted however a significant pullback to 750 is imminent regardless the wave counting or intermediate trend.
Before the settlement of March e-mini futures, ES finally jumped out of the sharp ascending channel, and this may give a little relief to the bears suffered from nightmare during the past several days. It seems no doubt that the market may open lower and bounce back up after the big money starts to focus on the market instead of manipulating the futures contract settlement price.
XLF gave a sell signal again, which agrees with SKF.
SPX 60-min mechanical system (courtesy of BPT) almost give the sell signal, however moving averages and slow STO have not confirmed it yet.
The most important event during the past two days is the breakdown of US dollar. A bounce back is possible which will hurt the stock market for sure, but the down trend may last for some time.
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