[Last weekly analysis]. The last weekly turned out to be a bullish consolidation and the market resumed the rally in this week. Now the gain in the past three weeks has offset the loss in the previous three weeks, and the heavy consolidation region is not far away ahead, so it will be interesting to see how the market goes in the next week.
Overview of World Markets and Sectors
Over the intermediate term, all markets are very bullish especially the emerging market is ahead of all others. Japanese market also looks promising.
The next chart shows the MSCI World/EAFE/Emerging Market, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 index. All markets are straight up without decent pullback, while SSEC is right at the previous high.
Major indices, commodities, and US dollar are shown in the next chart. Nothing special, only the commodities are backing off due to the rebound of US dollar.
Sector overview chart. Most sectors are going straight up while the financials got stuck at the resistance, and the technology and materials look the most bullish ones.
SPX
Now the previous bearish count is invalid, and the current internal structure favors the intermediate-term bullish count, which means that the major wave (5) of the primary wave I has finished. Then the current wave should be primary wave II in the form of corrective wave ABC, and the question is how long the first impulsive wave can last and how high it can reach.
On the hourly chart [left], the market looks neutral, however the negative divergence on RSI and MACD should not be neglected. Note the SPX 60-min system [right] almost gives a sell signal which is not confirmed by the moving average yet.
XLF and SKF
XLF chart has given four times of sell signal but none of them was approved to be reliable intermediate term signal. So is the SKF charts Wait and see how it works next week.
Currency Futures and Forex
US dollar index: bounce back up which hurts commodities and the crude oil. However the primary trend is still down.
USD/SGD: in consolidation region. Can break out at either side but most likely the up side.
USD/CAD: almost the same as USD/SGD.
EUR/USD: trend is down.
Commodities
Crude oil: hopefully it will touch the support level and then it’s the opportunity to get in.
Gold: the uptrend line is not decisively broken yet, so the current level is a buy opportunity and the stop level can be set easily.
[Several random charts]
1 comment:
Nice work...The pictures are a little bit small though...
Post a Comment