Saturday, April 18, 2009

2009-04-17 Market Watch: Weekly Analysis

[Last weekly analysis.]  The massive bear market rally has been lasted for six consecutive weeks.  Now SPX has gone back to the previous consolidation region.  If the market can decisively break out above the current resistance, EMA(13) at 925 to 945 will be the next target.

image SPX weekly

Overview of World Markets and Sectors

The entire world is going straight up while the emerging market is leading.

image World markets image relative strengths

The next chart shows the MSCI World/EAFE/Emerging Market, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 index.  All markets are still very bullish, and up trend has no sign of potential reversal at the moment.

image

Major indices, commodities, and US dollar are shown in the next chart.  Gold is bearish, US dollar starts to recover, and commodities cannot make a higher high.

image

Sector overview chart.  Energy sector is lagging behind, other sectors are bullish.

image

SPX

The wave counting is still the same, and the upside target is about 950.  Over the short term, the rising wedge as well as the negative divergence on RSI should be resolved soon.  My expectation is a moderate pullback to form an ascending channel.

image SPX dailyimage SPX hourlyimage target estimationimage ESM9 2-hr

XLF and SKF

SKF is a falling knife over the intermediate term.  Technically the uptrend of XLF is not completed yet.

image XLF daily

Currency Futures and Forex

US dollar index: the trend is confirmed to be up although it hits a resistance now.

image

USD/SGD: consolidation and the direction unknown.  If the support holds, it should go up again.

image

USD/CAD: no update.

EUR/USD: no update.  In the short term the downtrend should continue.

Commodities

Crude oil: unable to break out $55 and the consolidation/pullback will last for a while.

image

Gold: down trend.

image

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