2009-04-22 Market Watch

7:28AM: market breadth is very strong.

SPY 15-min, ChiOsc too high, right at Fib 61.8 should pullback from here.

NQ 5-min: filled the gap, close to the previous high, very overbought.

ES-5min: filled the gap.  standing firmly above EMA 50.  Buy on dip.

Market breadth: now it’s stronger than yesterday.

7:45am:

CL hourly: failed to break above the overhead resistance

DX hourly: it’s falling, good for financials.

FAZ is at the historical low again.  SKF is close to it although XLF hasn’t even filled the gap.

8:08am: oil is unable to catch up.  How long will the uptrend last?

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EOD: Here is the market breadth:

In the last hour, the market reached HOD and sold off sharply.

SPY 5-min

Bearish wave counting:  intermediate wave (3) completed on Mar 6, (4) completed on last Friday, intermediate-term down.  Bullish wave counting: primary wave (1) or intermediate wave (5) completed on mar 6, SPX is in intermediate wave ABC up.  For the first case, SPX should make a lower low soon, for the second, SPX should break above 875 in the coming days.

bearish counting bullish counting

If ES decisively breaks out the ascending channel and then falls below 823, the intermediate term downtrend will be confirmed.

ESM9 2-hr

The rally of XLF is likely over.

XLF hourly