Tuesday, November 04, 2008

2008-11-04 Market Watch

SPX daily: it is very clear that we are in the wave iv of primary wave 3.  But I don't understand why this wave has such a weird internal structure.  Should the pullback (b of wave v) come late, SPX could easily break 1070 before the next leg down.

image (full wave)  image (close up)

Although the waves on the daily chart look perfectly reasonable, the estimation of starting point of wave b of wave iv of primary wave 3 is a guesswork at the time being.  One can see that 985 became a support from a resistance since today.

Intraday chart:

image (SPX 60-min)image (INDU 60-min)

It looks very overbought.  The reason why I check the INDU chart is because it has volume, and I don't trust the volume of ETF's.  It can be seen that the pattern favors a pullback, in fact the pullback can happen at any time and it could be violent considered the extreme strength and volume pattern.  However, do remember that we are in wave iv and there will be a new high.

SKF daily:

image (SKF daily) image (XLF 60-min)

It is very possible that SKF will bounce back up very soon.  The exact entry point is unknown but the current level is safe.

USD/JPY: watch out...

image

No comments: