Here is the last weekly analysis. Obama was elected as the 44th US president, and the biggest uncertainty was gone. Now the market is at a new critical level and will likely have a big swing in the coming week.
Market Overview
The volatility is going up again which can be see on the VIX daily chart:
The capital market is improving further while the stock market was selling off.
The following chart shows the MSCI World index, MSCI EAFE index, MSCI Emerging Market, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 index. So far no market can go above MA20 for too long.
Major indices, commodities, and US dollar are shown in the following chart. Watch the MA200 on US dollar, crude oil, and commodities.
Sector overview chart: Nothing promising.
Glance of major indices and bullish percent: They are turning.
Wave counting
SPX: [left] overview of waves; [right] close up. Wave are in wave iv of wave 3.
The best scenario is to continue the reversal on the last Friday and reach 1070, then start the next wave.
SKF (no wave counting) no signal now.
Forex
USD/CAD: recovering. The previous target of 1.1 in the near term doesn't change.
USD/SGD: in consolidation.
USD/JPY: hopefully it can recover a bit further, however the primary trend is still down. The intraday chart [right] looks like a consolidation, however the new downtrend may have started.
USD/EUR: the consolidation is approaching an end and a new rally is going to start soon.
Commodities
Gold (continuous adjusted): Here is the monthly chart of gold price since 1974. It's still at a key support/resistance level.
Crude oil (continuous adjusted)
The following chart [left] shows the adjusted crude oil price since 1983. It dropped to Fib 61.8% precisely.
Matthew's chart
INDU - weekly long term: the counting is different from mine but the big picture seems alright.
Dow daily TRIX: mid-term buy signal
SPX daily TRIX: buy signal
NASI 1 year: mid-term buy signal
$CRX - Commoditiy Related Equity Index: wait
SSO system: long
SDS system: short
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