Saturday, December 13, 2008

2008-12-12 Market Watch: weekly analysis

Here is the last weekly analysis.  After reaching a short-term top, the market pulled back a little bit.  Although the primary trend is still up, it is prudent to watch how it goes in the next week and act accordingly.

Overview of World Markets and Sectors

On the world market weekly chart, we can see that the market has been calmed down a bit from the fast dropping during the past several months.  At the moment, it is still too early to say if this is a bottom in the intermediate term or not.  The emerging market had been dropping down very sharply, now it looks better.
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Comparison between US market and Asian markets: SPX looks like a rising wedge, rejected by 50-day moving average.  Japan market is still lower high.  Mainland China market is sitting on the trend line.  Hong Kong seems in better shape. 
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The left chart shows the MSCI World/EAFE/Emerging Market, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 index.
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Major indices, commodities, and US dollar are shown in the left chart.  With the dropping of US dollar, commodities start to bounce back up.
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Sector overview chart.
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SPX

Wave counting on the daily chart: wave C of 4 isn't completed yet.  We should be able to see 900+ to have a better entry point for mid-term short positions.

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Check the P&F chart for the resistance and support.  Downside support: 820.  Upside resistance: 915-920, then 950-955.

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On this 60-min chart, it is very possible that SPX will make a faked breakout.  But reaching 950 seems unlikely in the short term.

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XLF and SKF

XLF: last breakout was failed.  Although the up trend is intact, the level of 13.0 is still a short.

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SKF: wait for the next long entry below 120.  If it drops further on Monday, buy at market close and Tuesday market open.

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Forex

USD/CAD: target is 1.15.

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USD/SGD: same trend as others.  Rebound after deep oversold.

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USD/JPY: the primary trend of Yen is up.  In the short term it may bounce back up further to go back to the original descending channel.  However touching the upper edge seems impossible.  This means the stock market won't improve in the near future.

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EUR/USD: the target is approaching.

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Commodities

Gold: no update.  See the chart on the Oct 31st weekly analysis.

Crude oil (continuous adjusted)

The following chart [left] shows the adjusted crude oil price since 1983.

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Matthew's charts

VIX long term chart: buy signal.

INDU - weekly long term: positive. bottom in place.  buy.

Dow daily TRIX: buy signal.

SPX LT Stochastics: bottomed out. buy.

S&P 500 Projection: wave 3 finished.  Bottomed out.

S&P500 trend chart:

SPX daily TRIX: buy signal.

NASI 1 year: buy signal.

$CRX - Commoditiy Related Equity Index: oversold but no buy signal yet.

SSO system: buy.

SDS system: short.

Index All: short term down.

Dow 60-min: rising wedge.  Bearish.

put,call and put,call 10 day

SPX 15: resistance.  May fall down at market open.

USD monthly: down.

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