Saturday, December 06, 2008

2008-12-05 Market Watch: weekly analysis

Here is the last weekly analysis.  After the correction move, the intermediate term trend has been confirmed to be up now.  The primary strategy is to buy dip.

Market Overview


Take a look at the hourly chart of VIX and the daily chart over the longer term.  TED Spread hasn't change too much.

image (hourly) image (daily)

The following chart shows the MSCI World index, MSCI EAFE index, MSCI Emerging Market, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 index.  Higher low, but no higher high yet.

image

Major indices, commodities, and US dollar are shown in the following chart.  Commodities are very weak.

image

Sector overview chart: XLF and XLY are stronger.

image

Glance of major indices and bullish percent: up trend unchanged.

image

Focus


SPX: [left] wave c of 4 has started.  The upside target is 1000+.

image (close up)image (hourly)

SKF: wait for a while before buying again.

image (hourly)

Forex


USD/CAD: strong negative divergence.  It should pull back substantially.

image

USD/SGD: no update.

USD/JPY: it has to bounce back up otherwise the stock market won't move higher.

image

Commodities


Gold (continuous adjusted): no update.

Crude oil (continuous adjusted): no update.

Matthew's charts


VIX long term chart: buy signal.

INDU - weekly long term: positive.

Dow daily TRIX: buy signal.

SPX LT Stochastics: might be wrong counting.

S&P 500 Projection:

S&P500 trend chart:

SPX daily TRIX: buy signal.

NASI 1 year: buy signal.

$CRX - Commoditiy Related Equity Index: oversold but no buy signal.

SSO system: buy.

SDS system: short.


A few P&F charts:

image ($SPX)image (SPY) image (XLF)

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