Saturday, September 06, 2008

6 Sep 2008 Weekly Market Analysis

Market glance:

glance

Note that XLF is having a whipsaw.  Other than that, the mid-term trend is confirmed down.

SP500 daily chart and wave counting:

spx-wave-daily

If we inverse the SPX chart, it does look like a bull market.  This is why I believe we are in a bear market.  All comments are on the chart.

XLF daily chart and wave counting:

xlf-wave-daily

I am not saying the correct wave counting is correct but most likely this is the best scenario that bulls can hope for.  Pay attention to the Near-Term Trend comments.

SP500 60-min chart:

spx-60min-wave

I guess the market will open at 1260 and dive down to 1250, then goes up to 1270+.  If it doesn't drops below 1260 on Monday, most likely it will go straight up to 1270+.  Because the resistance between 1260-1270 is quite heavy, I don't expect it goes straight above to 1280+.  Be reminded that the mid-term trend is still down.

XLF 60-min chart:

xlf-60-min-wave

It does look quite strong.  I expect the next reversal happens at about 22.5.  Note that the Acc/Distrib lines has not decisively dropped down yet.  This is consistent with the current range-bounding situation.

SKF 60-min chart:

skf-60min

Everyone knows SKF is going down.  It seems the correction wave is not completed yet, let's be patient.  I expect the minimum target after the correction wave is from 130 to 140.

QQQQ 60-min chart:

QQQQ-60-MIN

I am not very sure about QQQQ.  But it seems the technology sector is very weak so I don't expect a strong rally.  It will lead the rebound in the next week.

DJIA 60-min chart:

indu-60m

The Acc/Distrib line looks unusual.

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