Wednesday, October 22, 2008

2008-10-22 Market Watch

Today the market sold off...AGAIN to prove how wrong the "mid-term bullish outlook" is.  Has the intermediate term bottom been in place firmly on Oct 10th?  Definitely not, today SPX reached a new low close, which is also a multi-year low close of course.  And neither the pattern nor the waves seem showing a capitulation or an end of the trend.  Enough said, let's take a look at the chart.

TED spread looks well although it is not in a "normal" range yet.

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VIX is still very high:

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SPX daily and 60-min chart: the wave structure needs to be clarified.  This wave 3 started in May will be the most violent one in the history.  Based on the Fibonacci expansion analysis, the potential target for this wave 3 could be 600, which is a weak support in 1996 by chance.  However that might not the end of the bear market, because after wave 3 there are 4 and 5.  The entire unfolding process may take many years because of this complicated wave structure.

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SKF daily: note the red line channel.

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Master Chuxue's one prefered scenario and 我等。。

Creekmm's SPX update

Breakpointtrades' video update and charts.

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