Charts reading after several days of break

$INDU: up trend confirmed by both volume and STO. The bottom is on 23 Jan. DJIA closed at 12650.36 yesterday (31 Jan), which is the upper limit that I estimated. If the previous valey on Nov 26 2008 is passed, it should go up to 12925, then 13228.

$SPX: up trend confirmed. Similar with DJIA.

$COMPQ: up trend confirmed, but not as strong as DJIA.

$VIX: going down and approaching EMA(50). Will reach 24 in the following days. Not good for selling options, good for buying options.

$CPC: trend is going down, but yesterday it has been back to 0.95. So people are neutral to the market but over the time they will be bullish.

$USD: going down since 22 Jan.

$XJY: very high, hopefully it will come down to ~92 in the future.

GLD: very high. STO is very high too.

DIA: similar with DJIA, no sign of downward movement. Put option should be closed.

INTC: up trend confirmed. However currently EMA(50) is below EMA(200), which is a medium term bearish signal. The target is to fill the gap at 22.

AAPL: STO has not crossed above 20 yet, but it seems the up trend is there. The resistance is at 150.

XLF: up trend confirmed, reached horizontal resistance at 30. See if it can break EMA(50) and approach EMA(200) with good volume, if yes, the target is 32.

UYG: at resistance ~40. STO crossed above 50. The next target looks like 50.

$NIKK: going up slowly, much slower than estimated. STO is still struggling to cross up 20.

$HSI: going down, different with estimation. Dragged by $SSEC?

$SSEC: going down crazily, target is 3500?

AMD: ready to go down? target is 5.x.

GOOG: ready to go up?

DRYS: strong up trend, next target is 85, then 100.

GRMN: up trend confirmed, target is 80.

VWO: see if it can break resistance of EMA(200)

ILF: up trend confirmed. But it seems being in a down channel.

EWZ: similar with ILF.

FXI: going down.

DBA: STO at the top, should go down.

MOO: unclear.

New Watch List of Indices and Stocks

US market indices: $INDU, $SPX, $COMPQ, $CPC, $VIX, $USD, GLD
0. Holdings of stocks and options: $NIKK, $HSI, UYG, AAPL, INTC

1. Financial: XLF, C, JPM
2. Technology: IBM, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, BIDU, T, RIMM
3. Resource: XOM
4. Transportation: DRYS, FDX, UPS
5. Industry: BA, GM, DD, MMM, GRMN
6. Medical: JNJ
7. Food, consumers: MCD, PG, KO, WMT
8. ETF: VWO, EWZ, ILF, FXI, XLE, XLB, GDX, DBA, MOO

(24 removed)

Kicked out from the daily watch list

0. Holdings of stocks and options:

DPTR, COF, PHM, AMD, LCC, VIP: things in the past.

1. Financial:

Everyone except XLF, C and JPM, which are components of DJIA.

2. Technology:

INTC: semiconductor sector won't be promising in 2008, and it isn't profitable.

EBAY, HPQ, NOK: low price.

ORCL: noisy chart, low price.

NOK: not profitable.

3. Resource:

Everyone but XOM (in DJIA).

6. Medical:

TEVA: not profitable.

7. Food, consumers:

DIS: not profitable.

Less daily chart reading: criteria

I got too many daily charts to read everyday.

Though the watch list are good for tracking the overall trend in the market and practicing of TA, it takes some time to track them all on a daily basis. Therefore I decided to shrink the daily watch list according to the following criteria:

1. Follow the big trend: the US market is bearish and the medium trend is downward, so it makes much sense to following the big losers than looking for stocks with up trend which can easily be dragged down by the market.
2. Focus on profitable stocks: stocks with price less than 50 do not have much space to drop, so the profit is not big enough to worth the effort.
3. Keep an eye on the leaders: they can give early signals.

The original watch list will be checked every weekend.

More daily charts reading of DIA and DRYS

DIA: as the ETF of $INDU, it should go down. At best case it can go up to 126. Then it should be approaching the previous low.

DRYS: a closer looking into the daily chart I guess it may go up to 64-65 very shortly then go down to ~50. Good candidates for selling short.

Daily charts reading for the last week

0. Holdings of stocks and options

UYG: STO still goes up, vol down. Trend is likely down.

AAPL: all indicators are going down.

INTC: volume is down, STO is crossing up 20. Bearish.

DPTR: volume seems being up, STO is down. Direction is not clear but likely going down.

COF: STO is up, but the up trend of volume is broken. Touched EMA(50) which is a resistance. Will likely go down.

PHM: Strong up trend is likely over and a correction will likely come soon although both STO (which is above 80) and volume are still up.

AMD: candlestick chart is bearish. STO and volume are up. There might be a minor correction but the overall trend is up.

LCC: candlestick pattern is bearish, volume is down. But it hasn't touched EMA(50) yet, so a upward move is still possible although the trend is down.

VIP: it has touched the resistance at 35 and goes down. The volume is down, and the next target is 30-.

1. Financial

C: volume is down, STO is up, a small correction is coming.

JPM: obvious down pattern, the next target is 40+.

MS: volume is down, STO is likely turning south. The next target is 47.5-.

GS: down to 180.

BAC: volume is down. There must be a small correction.

AXP: same as all others.

2. Technology

IBM: STO is crossing above 50, but volume is down. It might go to 110 which is a resistance, but the trend of upward is weak. EMA(50) and EMA(200) is crossing, so the overall trend is down.

MSFT: volume is down strongly, but STO is still up crossing 20. It will likely go down to 32 first.

INTC: upward trend is very weak, it might go back to 18+ again.

GOOG: volume is down, STO hasn't really crossed 20 yet, so the overall trend is down. The rebounce failed to reach 38.2% at 606.67. So it will go back and the next target is 520.

AMZN: volume is down, STO is up, failed to break 77.5 resistance. Will go down to 70.

BIDU: now it's at the support level of 300. The volume is down, STO is up crossing 20. If it starts to go down < 300, it will go back to 225-.

EBAY: failed to make upward breakthrough, will go down. This stock has no value to do either long call or put.

HPQ: failed to break resistance at 46. Will go down further at least to 43-. This stock has no value either.

ORCL: trend is down. The next two support levels are 19.5 and 19-. This stock has little value.

NOK: it had strong upward trend but the trend seems being broken by the last trading day's down movement. Signals are unclear. I guess EMA(50) will likely act as a resistance in the near future.

T: it has going down from the previous support level of 36. The next target will be 33+.

RIMM: upward trend is weak, it will likely go back to 80. Medium term trend is down.

3. Resource

ABX: going up!

TC: unclear.

X: not very clear, looks like going up.

RIO: mixed signal. The resistance is at ~30. Likely go down.

FCX: medium trend is down, but in the short term it will go up.

AUY: weak up trend.

GG: at the top. Already reached the resistance at 40 and going down. Volume is down but STO is still going up towards 80. It should have a small correction.

XOM: Now it's at the support level of 84. Trend is not clear but it might go down.

4. Transportation

DRYS: it's going up, but the trend is weak. Big trend is down.

FDX: both STO and volume is up, but it has reached the resistance of EMA(50). It should go down to 80-.

UPS: volume is down, STO is up, will likely go down if not rebounce at 70.

5. Industry

BA: it got stuck between 75-80, but it seems going down.

GM: STO is crossing above 50, volume is up, candlestick pattern shows undetermined direction. It will likely go up.

DD: STO up, volume down. Medium trend is obviously down. It will go down to 41.

MMM: volume is down, STO is up but likely turn around. Overall trend is down. Will likely go down.

GRMN: EMA(200) and EMA(5) is about to cross each other. So the long term trend is down. It should go down further.

6. Medical

JNJ: all indicators are down. Next support 61.5.

TEVA: same as above. Next support is 44-.

7. Food, consumers

MCD: both STO and volume are up. It will likely go up, but the trend is weak.

DIS: big trend is down. It will go down further.

PG: volume is down. STO will turn around. Will go down to 64 first.

KO: previously it touched EMA(200) and went up, now it might go down but the trend is weak.

WMT: big and obvious down trend, next target is 45+.

8. ETF

VWO: weak trend of going down.

EWZ: both STO and volume are up. It will likely go up to 80. Overall trend is down. Shouldn't long it.

ILF: trend is down. STO should turn south shortly.

FXI: at best it can go up to 165 then go down. Trend is down.

XLE: unclear. Will likely go up a little bit.

XLB: unclear.

GDX: all indicators are up, but it should be at the top soon and then have a correction.

DBA: still going up slowly. It hasn't had a big correction yet, but from the red volume bars it seems a big correction is due.

MOO: it has touched the support at 42 and been going up. STO and volumes show it will still go up.

GCR recommendation

CPST: microturbine manufacturer. Last two weeks announced new agreement with Brazil and China, $4M orders.

RZ: MER agreed to provide funding. $44M deal.

DSTI: Daystar Tech, Solar sector.

Tracking List of Indices and Stocks

US market indices:
$INDU, $SPX, $COMPQ, $CPC, $VIX, $USD, GLD

0. Holdings of stocks and options:
$NIKK, $HSI, UYG, AAPL, INTC
DPTR, COF, PHM, AMD, LCC, VIP (these are underlying of past option holdings and candidates)

1. Financial:
XLF, C, JPM, MS, GS, BAC, AXP

2. Technology:
IBM, MSFT, INTC, GOOG, AMZN, BIDU, EBAY, HPQ, ORCL, NOK, T, RIMM

3. Resource:
ABX, TC, X, RIO, FCX, AUY, GG, XOM

4. Transportation:
DRYS, FDX, UPS

5. Industry:
BA, GM, DD, MMM, GRMN

6. Medical:
JNJ, TEVA

7. Food, consumers:
MCD, DIS, PG, KO, WMT

8. ETF:
VWO, EWZ, ILF, FXI, XLE, XLB, GDX, DBA, MOO

Weekly chart reading of my holdings and option unerlyings

Nikkei 225: last week I thought it's in a down trend, and this week it has dived to a very low level. Now there is a red hammer with very deep shadow, it seems that a reversal is due (low reliable bullish signal). However STO has not crossed above 20 yet, so confirmation is needed. On the daily chart both the STO and volume is up so over the short term the rebounce is expected. Before 1 Feb I expect the index is below 14470, on 1 Feb it will be 14200 to 14600.

HSI: last week I expected it went down, now it has formed a shallow hammer with big shadow. The index level is at the bottrom of Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart, so there will be a rebounce. On the other hand, the weekly chart shows STO is crossing down to 50 and this hints a big down in the near future. Let's see how it goes. On the daily chart 26k is a resistance, 19.5k and 22k are two supports. I expect it at best goes up to 25.5k (I wish 28k is even possible), but from the wave it seems on 29 Jan it will be 26.3k and on 1 Feb it will dive to 24.8k.

UYG: weekly charts is a bit bullish but the daily chart is not optimistic. Yesterday is clearly a bearish confirmation since the volume is down after a doji. I expect on 1 Feb the highest level is 34.65 and it can go as slow as 28.3.

SKF: the candlestick pattern is rather bullish, the volume is up, but STO is crossing down 50, so the signals are mixed.

INTC: STO is up but volume is down. I expect it goes down, and on 1 Feb it is below 20. Before that the highest level is 21.8.

AAPL: the weekly chart is very bearish considered that both volume and STO are down. Compare with last August, now it has broken EMA(200), so it can easily go further down to under 120.

DPTR: last week I expected that it went down to ~18 and possibly 14. Now it got stuck at 18-19 which is a support level. It can go further down but I have closed the put position since the profit will be marginal.

COF: last week I said it's going down sharply and the target price was unknown. Now it's going up. Let's see if the trend can be sustained.

PHM: last week the trend had reversed now it's very bullish. On the daily chart it has reached the upper edge of the Bollinger Bands, and the candlestick patterns seem it will downward corrected.

AMD: last week I said the nearest target is 10-12.5 now it hasn't reached that yet. From the daily candlestick pattern it will go down a bit in the next few days, however both STO and volume are going up. The weekly chart is also bullish. So the overal trend is still bullish.