Today the market is going up again. We could call it as a “climax run” in the big context of bear market. However from technical point of view, a new bull market may have started. In the following SPX weekly chart, a bear market can be identified as the downward crossover between EMA13 and EMA34, and a bull market will be started roughly when EMA13 goes above EMA34. Now a bullish crossover almost happens unless the market drops down from here for two or more consecutive weeks. Personally I don’t yet believe a bear market is gone so quickly, but it’s important to keep in mind that the trend is “UP”.
SPX weekly
On 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals, not surprisingly all intermediate signals are buy, and there are several overbought signals on the chart. The breakout of megaphone pattern could be at either side, and we don’t need to bet on it. Short-term signals are mostly overbought on 0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals and intraday charts. However note that range-bounding signals doesn’t work very well in a trending market since the indicators will approach to an extreme after certain period of time by definition. On SPY 30-min chart, two bearish rising wedge are forming and this argues that a severe pullback may occur later. Today CPC is below 0.8 again and this has triggered the firework setup on 2.8.1 CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio. Financial sector broke out at the upside after the last Friday consolidation with increased volume. Although it is lagging behind the broad market, there is currently no sign of weakening. From purely TA’s perspective, my opinion is to gradually increase intermediate-term long positions and buy dip if there is any.
SPX hourly
