Saturday, December 06, 2008

Trading System Back Test on MetaStock Pro 9.0

Simulation parameters:

  • Exclude all systems which require optimization (and thus data dependent);
  • Both long and short, and all positions will be closed on the last bar.
  • Margin interest rate: 5%, money market interest rate rate: 3%.
  • Margin requirements: long 100%, short 150%.
  • Initial equity: 10000.
  • Commission: $1 per transaction for both entry and exit.
  • Use realistic market prices based on market open for buy/sell/sell short/buy to cover.

1. Dow Jones Industrial Average, from 1928-10-01 to 2008-12-05.  EOD.

Performance chart:

image

Top systems:

  • pp::CCI (modified)
    equity over time:
    image
    Stops:
    image
    Summary:
    image
  • pp::Pivot Rotation
    equity over time:
    image
    Stops:
    image
    Summary:
    image
  • Equis - Trend Analysis - Expert System
    equity over time:
    image
    Stops:
    image
    System details:
    image
    Summary:
    image
  • pp::Bollinger Bands (modified)
    equity over time:
    image
    Stops:
    image
    Summary:
    image

2. S&P 500 Index, from 1950-01-03 to 2008-12-05. EOD.

Performance chart:
image

Refer to other test results on top 4 systems.

3. Nasdaq Composite Index, from 1971-02-05 to 2008-12-05.  EOD.

Performance chart:
image
Top systems:

  • pp::CCI (modified)
    image
  • PS Bull Power Bear Power 1
    image
    system details and stop setting:
    image
  • PS percentage Crossover 3%
    image
    system details and stop setting:
    image
  • pp::Pivot Rotation
    image 

4. SKF, from 2007-02-01 to 2008-12-05

Performance chart:
image

Top systems:

  • PS Cycle progression: this is an extremely simple system!
    summary:
    image
    equity over time:
    image
    system details:
    image

5. SDS, from 2007-07-13 to 2008-12-05

Performance chart:

image

Refer to other test results for more details.

6. UltraETF: SSO+SDS+SKF+UYG, from 2007 to 2008-12-05

Performance chart:

image

Refer to other test results for more details.

7. QQQQ 5-min bars from 2006-11-13 to 2008-11-10 (728 days)

Performance chart: One can see that, the huge profit is eroded by equally huge commissions.

image

summary of pp::CCI(modified) [left] and pp::Pivot Rotation [right].

image  image

Change it to 15-min bar:

image

Summary:

image(pp:CCI(modified)) image(pp::Pivot Rotation) image (pp::Bollinger Bands(modified))

Change it to 60-min bar:

image

summary:

image pp::CCI(modified) image pp::Pivot Rotation image pp::Bollinger Bands

2008-12-05 Market Watch: weekly analysis

Here is the last weekly analysis.  After the correction move, the intermediate term trend has been confirmed to be up now.  The primary strategy is to buy dip.

Market Overview


Take a look at the hourly chart of VIX and the daily chart over the longer term.  TED Spread hasn't change too much.

image (hourly) image (daily)

The following chart shows the MSCI World index, MSCI EAFE index, MSCI Emerging Market, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 index.  Higher low, but no higher high yet.

image

Major indices, commodities, and US dollar are shown in the following chart.  Commodities are very weak.

image

Sector overview chart: XLF and XLY are stronger.

image

Glance of major indices and bullish percent: up trend unchanged.

image

Focus


SPX: [left] wave c of 4 has started.  The upside target is 1000+.

image (close up)image (hourly)

SKF: wait for a while before buying again.

image (hourly)

Forex


USD/CAD: strong negative divergence.  It should pull back substantially.

image

USD/SGD: no update.

USD/JPY: it has to bounce back up otherwise the stock market won't move higher.

image

Commodities


Gold (continuous adjusted): no update.

Crude oil (continuous adjusted): no update.

Matthew's charts


VIX long term chart: buy signal.

INDU - weekly long term: positive.

Dow daily TRIX: buy signal.

SPX LT Stochastics: might be wrong counting.

S&P 500 Projection:

S&P500 trend chart:

SPX daily TRIX: buy signal.

NASI 1 year: buy signal.

$CRX - Commoditiy Related Equity Index: oversold but no buy signal.

SSO system: buy.

SDS system: short.


A few P&F charts:

image ($SPX)image (SPY) image (XLF)