Saturday, November 15, 2008

2008-11-14 Market Watch: weekly analysis

Here is the last weekly analysis.

Market Overview


The volatility is still high [left].  Previously it seemed turning down but now it bounced back up.  The capital market isn't becoming worse which is promising [right:TED spread].

image (VIX 2-year)  image (TED 1-year)

The following chart shows the MSCI World index, MSCI EAFE index, MSCI Emerging Market, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 index.  Note that: mainland China market is approaching the MA50; we have seen the first higher high in November.

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Major indices, commodities, and US dollar are shown in the following chart.  Nothing interesting.

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Sector overview chart: another boring chart... hopefully it's a bottoming pattern.

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Glance of major indices and bullish percent:

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Wave counting 


SPX: [left] overview of waves; [right] close up.  Wave are in wave iv of wave 3, I believe.  Upside target: 970-1000.

image image

SKF: shorting.  Read yesterday's chart.  The signal has been confirmed.

Forex


USD/CAD: no update.

USD/SGD: no update.

USD/JPY: no update to the long term chart.  There should be a big move soon.

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USD/EUR: correction is coming.

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Commodities


Gold: big picture is still the same.  No update.

Crude oil: reached the target on the weekly chart, however it has not reversed yet.

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Matthew's charts


VIX long term chart:

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INDU - weekly long term: no update.

INDU Weekly close up: no update.

Dow daily TRIX: still mid-term buy signal.

SPX LT Stochastics: no update.

S&P 500 Projection: no update.

S&P500 trend chart: no update.

SPX daily TRIX:signal is the same.

NASI 1 year: mid-term buy signal but overbought.

$CRX - Commoditiy Related Equity Index: wait for STO.

SSO system: still long.

SDS system: still short.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

2008-11-13 Market Watch: a 911 day?

Take a look at today's 5-min chart of S&P 500 index futures and SKF, what a violent day!

image (/ES) image (SKF)

I heard that today is a "911" day -- Dow rallied 911 points (check out /YM), and SPX closed at 911. :-)

SPX: still looks like a zigzag wave iv or a consolidation.  The target is about 970-980 or higher, but today has reached a level where a correction may happen.

image(daily) image (hourly)

USD/JPY:

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SKF: the trading plan really pays off.

image (daily) image (hourly)

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

2008-11-12 Market Watch

SPX daily: it seems the wave iv of 3 is over and wave v is forming.  However wave iv looks a bit too short and the internal structure doesn't look right.  Another possibility is to form a zigzag wave iv.  The hourly chart [right] looks very bearish and the selling off may likely continue.

image (daily) image (60-min)

Update to yesterday's USD/JPY: very bearish!

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SKF: next entry 180-185.

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Tuesday, November 11, 2008

2008-11-11 Market Watch

SPX: two possible scenarios are marked on the chart.  If SPX goes above 950, it is possible to reach 1070+ to form wave iv of 3.  If SPX goes under previous low, the wave iv has passed and the current wave is wave v.  Strategies for two scenarios are different.  From the hourly chart (ignore the last wave mark), it is likely the current wave is still corrective.

image(daily) image(60-min)

USD/JPY: the lower edge of the channel could be a good support or ... in danger.  If it is broken, bet on the downside for the stock market.

image

Crude oil:

image image

SKF: it is time to short positions slightly.  Double the positions once the signal is confirmed.

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Monday, November 10, 2008

2008-11-10 Market Watch

SPX daily: The picture looks the same.  However there is a resistance at 95x area.

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USD/JPY:

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SKF: The signal is not triggered yet.  But it is fine to open short positions.

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