Friday, April 03, 2009

2009-04-03 Market Watch: weekly analysis

[Last weekly analysis]  We have witnessed the most impressive four weeks of rally, which could be the biggest rally in the history at least since the bear market started in 2007.  Although SPX has not reached the consolidation yet and big loss in the last four consecutive weeks is not fully covered, the upward momentum is extremely strong and this market condition is very usual also.

image SPX weekly

Overview of World Markets and Sectors

The trend is the same as the last week.  No change to the original comments.

image World marketsimage Relative strength

The next chart shows the MSCI World/EAFE/Emerging Market, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 index.  All markets look very bullish after a few days of pullback.  MA-20 are all pointing up.

image

Major indices, commodities, and US dollar are shown in the next chart.  Gold and US dollar are bearish, all other markets are extremely bullish.

image

Sector overview chart. All sectors are bullish especially technology sector.

image

SPX

Wave counting is still the same.  The right hand side is the target estimation.

image SPX dailyimage

Downside target for buying dip: 800-810, use MACD as a signal.

image SPX hourlyimage EMA crossover system

XLF and SKF

SKF is not a good buy before going back to 90.  XLF is on the edge of breakout, although it’s overbought.

image SKF hourly image SKF daily

Currency Futures and Forex

US dollar index: the trend is still down after the rebound is over.

image USD daily

USD/SGD: at least one more down in the near term.

image

USD/CAD: down trend will continue.

image

EUR/USD: technical indicators are neutral.  Assume the uptrend will continue.

image

Commodities

Crude oil: it has touched the support level and bounced back up.  The trend is up, and the strategy is buy on dip!

image dailyimage weekly

Gold: long position should have been stopped out.

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Direxion 3X ETF list.

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Thursday, April 02, 2009

2009-04-02 Market Watch

Today bears were heavily wounded by the massive rally.  Most likely we are still in the major wave A of the primary wave (2).  With the assumption of 333 structure, the first target of A could be as high as 946.  MACD and RSI show a sign of weakening uptrend though.

image SPX wave counting.image

image SPX 60-min system

SKF is at the lowest level since 2007, while XLF failed to reach a new high today.

image SKF dailyimage XLF hourly

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

2009-03-31 Market Watch

image SPX wave counting.image normal view

image SPX hourly.  the moving averages show the sign of the corrective wave.

image SPX 60-min system. Sell signal is still valid.

image SKF hourly.  Gap is filled, buy signal becomes weak.

image today’s ES 5-min chart.

Monday, March 30, 2009

2009-03-30 Market Watch

The ending point of the major wave (5) doesn’t look alright, and the market needs to confirm it in the coming weeks. The region between 740-750 remains to be crucial.

image SPX wave counting

On the following hourly chart, if SPX goes above 802-805, the market will be in corrective wave.  If it heads down again before reaching 795, the downward momentum will be very strong.

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XLF hourly: sell signal confirmed, very bearish.  SKF hourly: uptrend is valid

image XLF hourly image SKF hourly