Today the market rallied but nothing is really changed. On the SPX P&F chart, we can see that the support is still solid, the uptrend is confirmed by higher highs and higher lows. On the hourly chart, the multi-week consolidation is ascending a little bit but there is no real breakout yet, so the real direction is still unknown. Statistically the breakout at the up side is more likely, which is consistent with the daily chart.
SPX P&F chart
SPX hourly chart
The market breadth in the past two days was very bullish. Especially the volume was much higher, $CPC $CPCE and $CPCI reflect that sentiment reached a high level. We have yet to see if this indicates a short term top.
As all of us know, the trend of gold and US dollar has reversed. This will impact the financials and commodities. At the moment XLF doesn’t look well on daily chart, on the hourly chart it’s approaching the resistance at ~14.5. The potential pullback could cause more upside in the short term, but it has to stand above 14.5 firmly to prove the rally.
XLF hourly
Summary: intermediate term I am not sure (technically bullish, but US dollar might be a problem); short term should have more upside but pullback might follow.
