I, Thinker: 1/18/09

Saturday, January 24, 2009

SRS技术分析

ProShares提供跟踪Dow Jones US Real Estate Index $DJUSRE的两个ETF，分别是SRS双倍反指和URE双倍正指。首先看一下$DJUSRE的日线图：

$DJUSRE daily 1-yr $DJUSRE从9月到现在

看URE和SRS过去一年的日线图。从图上看，经过去年10、11月的暴跌，两个ETF都已经大伤元气，图形很难看，持有时间长的话损失会比较大。假如$DJUSRE再发生一次暴跌，SRS可能还会涨起来，但后来应该避免中期交易这两只ETF。

URE SRS

SRS小时图。从技术上看，SRS最近的上涨不能看作新的上涨趋势，只是下降过程中的调整。没有形成很强的趋势之前，需要留心区间震荡的指标，如RSI。1月15日突破阻力线随后下跌，基本上算假突破，同时RSI和价格negative divergence，在这种情况下，应该清仓观望。近期如果大盘没有明显的大幅度下跌，我不认为SRS还可以回到100。

从小时图上看，中期持有SRS的必要条件是：EMA21>EMA55>EMA89，稳定在EMA55之上。对比下面SKF的图，应该能够看出来SRS走的路和SKF完全不同。

Friday, January 23, 2009

2009-01-23 Market Watch: weekly analysis

Here is the last weekly analysis. In the past three weeks the market has been continuously going down. On the first trading day of this week, the market sold off massively and later it was bounding in the range set on Tuesday. At the end of the week, the market conditions are mostly neutral.

(SPX daily) (SPX daily)

Overview of World Markets and Sectors

From the weekly chart of world markets comparison, the whole world is sinking again and the emerging market is losing the steam.

(world markets weekly) (relative strengths)

The next chart shows the MSCI World/EAFE/Emerging Market, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 index. There is no sign of reversal at the moment.

Major indices, commodities, and US dollar are shown in the next chart. Note that the crude oil is making a higher low, and the commodity sector is reversing, which could possibly stabilize the market.

Sector overview chart. Again, the financial sector is extremely weak, which the energy sector is not so bad in this week (probably the oil helped a lot).

SPX

In term of wave counting, scenario (A) and (C) turned out to be invalid, and the only possible way is (B).

(SPX daily, inverse chart)

On the P&F chart, we can see that SPX is making a symmetrical triangle pattern, but this pattern can be resolved at either up or down side. For bears, the important level to watch is 860.

Last week the estimation based on the hourly chart was too optimistic. The Obama rally didn't happen and the market headed down from the beginning of the week. This week the sub wave 2 seems unfolding and thus I estimate the upside target of SPX is 855 in the near term.

(SPX daily)

XLF and SKF

On Tuesday XLF was almost crashed. However the money seems flowing in. We could see a dead cat's rebound in the next week. The technical indicators of SKF on both daily and hourly charts are neutral to bearish.

(XLF daily) (SKF daily)