Monday, February 18, 2008

Feb17 weekly chart reading: the rest

$SPX: last week I estimated that the target is 1370, on Feb 13 and 14 the high points are 1369.23 and 1368.16. The next week is a breakout time, no estimation is given. Watch and see.

$CPC: now it's at 1.16, the sentiment is still a little bit bearish. It should go up sharply to form a bottom and then go down.

$VIX: the natural direction is to go down, which means no sharp up/downward movement is expected in the next week.

UYG: hasn't touched 31 yet but the trend is down.

1. Financial

C: last week's outlook is wrong, it's still in downtrend. Now the trend is not clear, basically down slowly.

JPM: down.

2. Technology

IBM: it didn't go up to 110 but reached 109. Now it's in a very near-term uptrend, but it will go down shortly.

AAPL: still in down trend. But STO is very low so it won't go any lower.

GOOG: in the last week it was going up continuously. This trend will continue, according to STO which is crossing above 20 soon.

MSFT: last week's outlook is right. This week it will go up slowly.

T: last week's estimation is completely correct. Besides the 1-2 days correction, the near-term trend is up. The intermediate term target is 42.

RIMM: last week's estimation is completely correct. Now it's in a uptrend. It has to break the resistance at ~97 and then go back to the long-term uptrend.

3. Resource

XOM: last week's estimation is basically correct. Now the trend is up. It will likely break the resistance at 87--88 and reach 90.

4. Transportation

DRYS: last week's estimation is completely correct. STO has topped out, last trading day it was down with heavy volume. In the next week it will have a correction and stop at 70.

FDX: it hasn't broken EMA(50), and now it stays at about 87.5. Wait for breaking of EMA(50).

UPS: it broke out, and the last week's estimation is basically correct. It may go up a bit and then have a correction.

5. Industry

BA: it had a upward breakout. It will go up further.

GM: it didn't go further down. The trend of next week is unclear.

DD: it had a upward breakout but the volume is light, afterward the downward movements have comparable volume. In the next week it will go down further to ~44 and then rebounce.

MMM: it didn't go down, especially didn't go down to 72. In the next week it will go up further. Intermediate term target is ~88.

6. Medical

JNJ: The downside movement was supported by the price level in the last Aug-Sept. the direction in the next week is unclear.

7. Food, consumer

MCD: last week's estimation is correct. It is undergoing a correction (to 52--53) and will go up afterward.

PG: last week's estimation is basically correct. The near term trend is up besides a very small correction (to 65.5).

KO: rebounce very soon. It will go up slowly.

WMT: last week's estimation is wrong. It's still in a slowly uptrend.

8. ETF

VWO: parallel upward channel is there, go break 97.5 and rally.

EWZ: bullish!

ILF: similiar with EWZ.

FXI: trend is up slowly. Wait for the breakout.

XLE: it has broken out. Candlestick pattern is bearish, but the chart is bullish. It will go up!

XLB: it has broken out, but cannot sustain.

GDX: last week's reading is wrong. It has formed a triangle pattern and will have a upward breakout.

DBA: same as last week. wait...

MOO: bullish channel is there, it has gone back to normal. It may have a gap up!

Sunday, February 17, 2008

Feb17 weekly chart reading: $NIKK



Bullish!

Feb17 weekly chart reading: $HSI


Feb17 weekly chart reading: GS

Feb17 weekly chart reading: BIDU

Feb17 weekly chart reading: FSLR


If it doesn't go below 200, there will be a new high!

Feb17 weekly chart reading: GRMN

Feb17 weekly chart reading: INTC

Feb17 weekly chart reading: XLF

Feb17 weekly chart reading: GLD

Feb17 weekly chart reading: $USD

Feb17 weekly chart reading: $COMPQ

Last week I estimated that this index would slump at about 2350. The fact is it went to 2376.22 and then went down. It seems on the next trading day 2280 is a critical point. Going under it means a near-term down trend, otherwise the market will have a bullish breakout.

Feb17 weekly chart reading: DIA


Last week I estimated that $INDU would have a small rally to ~12530, then it would go down. This has been confirmed. On Feb 13, $INDU closed at 12552.24, and the highest point is 12627.76 which was lower than 12720.

Now the triangle pattern has fully formed and a breakout is due on the next trading day. The volume is shrinking, so is the price range. It seems so obvious that the previous trend will continue, i.e., the next week the market will go down.

However, will the market still go along this direction when most people have realized it? In this triangle pattern, the up days had heavier volume which is suspicious. Therefore I suspect if the market will give a surprise to have a upward breakout.

Nevertheless if the market goes down further it may dive to ~11200 at least, which is lower than previous low, and of course very scary. I hope it won't happen.

Tuesday is critical. If the market goes under 12200, the down trend will be confirmed.