Monday, October 12, 2009

Market Update

The market is going up on decreasing volume, which could be bearish.  Today SPX tested the previous high but couldn’t break it.  The financials seem strong still.  The profit-taking near previous high was strong, but people were still eager to buy any dip, so SPX didn’t even drop in last Friday range which seems bullish.  So far the market is neutral, there are a few negative divergence on SPY 30-min chart but it is not a reason of pullback.  The decreased NYADV (see NYSE - Issues Advancing) seems unhealthy though.  If SPX breaks up 1080, a new round of rally will be started, otherwise a pullback is still possible.

image SPX hourly

US dollar and gold: it seems to me that the most significant market movement is the upside breakout of gold which in turn confirms the downtrend of us dollar.  In the following two charts, the trend is very clear: US dollar will drop deeper and gold will continuously go higher.

image gold monthlyimage us dollar daily

The crude oil is still in consolidation.  However, the big trend will be up considering the weakening US dollar.

image Crude oil daily

Emerging market: the rising wedge is unresolved and a pullback is due.

image EEM daily