Monday, September 14, 2009

Market Update

After last Friday’s consolidation, today the market gapped down but closed at a new high with decent volume.  In all timeframes, the trend is still up although negative divergence can be seen on many technical indicators (see 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals).  Although the giant rising wedge looks a bit scary, the up trend line has been tested three times and it remains intact.  As mentioned many days ago, the volume between the current level and 1200 is very thin thus the uptrend may not get much resistance.  Note that the SPX weekly chart shows a confirmed header and shoulders pattern.  On the intraday chart, the market gets a little bit overbought and negative divergence on RSI and MACD could cause a pullback in the short term.

image SPX hourly

Financials were very bullish today.  XLF may not make a new high very soon because of overhead resistance and negative divergence formed on the chart.  However, the uptrend seems being resumed and the breakout of the consolidation region between 13.7~14.8 could be violent.

image XLF hourly

On the other hand, US dollar and crude oil do not look optimistic to me.  If the oil price goes further down and dollar bounces back, the stock market will suffer and the finacials will also pull back significantly.

image US dollar futures  image Crude oil futures

Summary: intermediate term bullish but be cautious. Could see a pullback in the short term.