Friday, November 28, 2008

2008-11-28 Market Watch: weekly analysis

Here is the last weekly analysis.  Last week the market bounced back up sharply.  The intermediate term trend has likely reversed, and the primary strategy is no longer short now.

Market Overview


The volatility is heading down now.  TED spread is steadily low, which is consistent with the primary trend.

image (60-min) image (daily) image  [TED Spread, 1-year]

The following chart shows the MSCI World index, MSCI EAFE index, MSCI Emerging Market, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 index.  No comments.

image

Major indices, commodities, and US dollar are shown in the following chart.  Commodities are still quite weak.

image

Sector overview chart: it seems all sectors are due for an immediate pullback.

image

Glance of major indices and bullish percent: trend is up.

image

Focus


SPX: [left] wave 3 has finished.

image (overview)  image (close up)  image (back to channel?)

SKF: Brilliant! It will probably go up again, and let's short it again!  Everyone should know that, shorting SKF is intrinsically different from longing UYG.  If anyone doesn't understand, think again.

image (SKF daily)  image (SKF 60-min)  image (UYG daily)

Forex


USD/CAD: it did go down.  I expect it goes down more in the next two weeks.

image

USD/SGD (inverted): it bounced back up as expected last week.

image

USD/JPY (2-hour): it pulled back as expected.  However there is no direction now.

image

Commodities


Gold (continuous adjusted): Here is the monthly chart of gold price since 1974.  Up trend is unchanged.

image image

Crude oil (continuous adjusted)

The following chart [left] shows the adjusted crude oil price since 1983.  No reason to be optimistic.

image image

Matthew's charts


VIX long term chart: wow, buy signal again?

1

INDU - weekly long term: nothing interesting.

INDU Weekly close up:

Dow daily TRIX: buy signal.

2

SPX LT Stochastics:

S&P 500 Projection:

S&P500 trend chart:

SPX daily TRIX:

NASI 1 year:

$CRX - Commoditiy Related Equity Index:

SSO system: breakout?

3

SDS system:

Matthew's charts in this two weeks are not very insightful, in my opinion.

Thursday, November 27, 2008

2008-11-27 Market Watch

SPX: I highly suspect the wave 3 has completed and we are now seeing the unfolding of wave 4.  The chart looks like a perfect harmonic.  If this is true, the rally can last one or two months.

image (inverted chart and measurement) image

SKF: actually it looks too early to close the short position.  No signal at the moment.  Missed some profit because IB threatened to liquid my short position although I had plenty of margin at that time.

image

USD/JPY: short-term bearish

image (daily)image (2-hour)

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

2008-11-25 Market Watch

SPX: it should touch 870-875 and pullback a little bit.  Quit the long position tomorrow and buy dip.

image (SPX daily)  image (INDU 15-min)

USD/JPY: it means pullback!

image

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

2008-11-24 Market Watch

SPX daily: I am not sure about the intermediate bottom but over the near term, the bottom is in place.

image (SPX daily)  image (INDU 15-min)

USD/JPY: back test and go up.

image

SKF: more space at the down side.

image(hourly)  image (15-min)