2009-03-06 Market Watch: weekly analysis

[Last weekly analysis].  We have seen another week of free falling and the selling power has not been weakened yet.

SPX weekly

Overview of World Markets and Sectors

Probably because of strong crude oil and commodities, the emerging market as well as other parts of the world are not dropping as fast as US market.  The emerging market so far has not made a new low yet.

world markets weekly relative strength

EEM (Emerging market ETF) weekly

The next chart shows the MSCI World/EAFE/Emerging Market, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 index.  On the daily chart, only mainland China market looks better.

Major indices, commodities, and US dollar are shown in the next chart.  UD dollar looks strong, while the crude oil and commodities probably have an intermediate-term bottom in place.

Sector overview chart. Only thing noticeable is that technology sector is in a better shape, and sell off in several sectors has slowed down a bit.

SPX

The wave 3 of (5) is still unfolding and it will probably reach 650 or lower before consolidating for a while.

  SPX daily

The target on the P&F chart has been hit in the last week, however the next target is unknown since there is no reference below.  It's very difficult to do further analysis.

XLF and SKF

SKF should have topped out and drop down in the next week.

SKF daily SKF hourly

Currency Futures and Forex

US dollar looks topped out and has reversed back down.  If this is true, the market could bounce back up in the short term.  Euro FX futures is consolidating.

  DX daily.

Commodities

Crude oil: higher high and higher low, right at the resistance.  Bullish.

Gold: bounce back from the lower edge of the channel.  Bullish.

Tracking errors of leveraged ETF's

First, suppose we buy both SPY and SDS at the ratio of 1:1.087, considered the daily performance based on the dollar value of SDS relative to SPY, the daily market movement should be roughly canceled in this portfolio.  Here you can see that SDS has largely driven by volatility/sentiment after Sep 18th.

If we set the benchmark on Jan 6th when the demand to short ETF was at the low point, we can see that the value of SDS has been continuously stretching by the fear.  Unfortunately there is no sharp peak which can pinpoint a market bottom.

Measurement on SKF with benchmark on Jan 6th, and last Mar 7th.  The conclusion is although the market is approaching or very close to a short-term bottom, however we have yet to see a sharp peak on SDS/SKF to confirm the intermediate term bottom is in place.

Jan 6th, Mar 7th

2009-03-04 Market Watch

今天大盘超跌反弹，从昨天夜里开始，基本上是一路上涨到收盘的最后半小时。SPX一度接近月初的高点，超买之后盘尾妞妞们开始锁定利润，再次跌了下来。从收盘看，大家对做多完全没有信心，目前还处于反弹就做空的状态。

ES 5-min

XLF高开低走，创新低之后反弹，最后收盘时候跌了回去。石油期货暴涨，带动能源板块上涨。XLE今天上涨了4.78%。美元高开低走，欧元反之，情况中性。

从各种情况看，今天还是属于中期下跌过程中的一个短暂的反弹。中期底部还没有确定。从以往的情况看，短期的熊旗持续不了三天。

002：各个指标都处于超卖状态，反弹是很正常的。

003：中期技术指标都是卖出，没有什么变化，短期指标超卖，支持反弹。

从103上看，大盘涨到TICK过1000，STO遇到阻力，然后回条是正常的。

从104上看，大盘下跌的时候RSI和STO都超买了。根据这两个图，明天早上可能继续回调。

暂时没有更多的情况，从图上看，大盘还有进一步回调的需求。之后是否上涨并不清楚。但从波浪上看，短期底部可能已经有了。现在是观望的时候，尽量不要乱动。

最后更新SKF的图：

2009-03-03 Market Watch

中午马上要开会，就不说太多了。

今天是老大预测趋势逆转的日子。盘中出现好的反弹，抄底量大，但收盘时候的暴跌破坏了整个量价关系。SPX全天下跌0.64%，金融最近一直缩量下跌，今天下跌1.97%，盘中有反弹。由于收盘时候期货的大量抛盘，因此本来对大盘的谨慎乐观变成了谨慎，没有乐观了。

ES hourly

今天石油遇到前期支撑反弹，形势暂时看好。石油稳定，能源板块这个指数的大头就稳定了。美元和欧元期货经过一番波折，等于没有什么变化。黄金持续回调。

需要指出的是，虽然大盘下跌的可能性比较大，而且有下跌空间，但现在做空的风险很大了，建议锁定利润。

SPX小时图上出现一定的positive divergence。现在还不是底，但离短期底部，也就是wave 3 of (5)的结束已经不远了。大的反弹随时可能出现。

SPX daily wave counting

SKF小时图如下：卖出信号基本确认了，下跌超过193基本就完全确认了。按照波浪估算上方可能有220-230的点位。从图形上看，突破211-212左右可能有新一轮的暴涨。

SKF hourly

综上所述：建议空仓锁定一部分利润，绝对不要做多抢反弹。

2009-03-02 Market Watch

SPX今天暴跌到700整数关口，是一个major distribution day。下面没有支撑，已经没有什么可以参考的了。就随便猜测一下吧。

SPX daily wave counting.

今天我注意到emerging market也开始奋起直追了。

EEM daily

石油期货是个double top breakdown，看起来还没有跌到位。可惜下跌的大部分路程是在non-trading hour里，做股票的只能看见一个gap在USO上面。

CLJ9 hourly

美元期货稳定上涨，尚未超买，但拉近看有点像rising wedge。欧元期货上有个gap，有一点点positive divergence的意思。暂时还不看好。

DX hourly

ES上看不到什么positive divergence，这个wave 5是加速下降，有可能发展成extended wave，按照wave 3长度估算，可能达到678左右。NQ情况稍微好一些，有点微不足道的减缓趋势，但下方可能还有3%左右的空间。

ES hourly

目前的情况看，金融不是排头兵，能源止跌才是大盘反弹的先决条件。另外, 材料板块也很糟糕。

XLE hourly XLB hourly

今天不挨个叙述蛇老大的图了，只把有点意思的说一下。

001暂时不看底。002和003中性偏熊，也不看底。103上的RSI严重超卖，但超卖未必马上反弹，值得注意的是TICK很低，所以明天可能反弹一点。104很勉强有一点positive divergence。由115和116看，最先反弹的应该是QQQQ。Russell 2000相比Nasdaq 100来说还是要弱不少。280和281上面的CPC/CPCE上去了，但还不高，现在妞妞的心理素质和灾难承受能力都有了另人瞩目的改善。

综上所述，大盘下跌很可能还没有到位。抄底的要继续等。短期可能有小的反弹，但仍然不看好后来的情况。由于目前的位置万一出现变故，反弹可能比较强烈，所以不建议加空仓。最好的办法，我觉得还是持空仓或现金继续观望。