Monday, August 31, 2009

Market Update

Today the market pulled back a little bit but the market breadth was not optimistic.  The intermediate term signal on the daily chart (see 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals) is still buy, but it’s at the edge of being reversed.  The big pattern looks like a rising wedge while the market always backs off after touching the upper trend line, negative divergence on all indicators has not been corrected yet.  Crude oil is sitting on the intermediate term ascending trend line, the futures index has actually fallen below the short term trend line.  The retreat of oil price is not good for the broad market.  EEM (emerging market index ETF) has broken the intermediate term uptrend as well as the rising wedge.  We’d better to keep an eye and watch if this is an early warning of more severe pullback in US market.

image Crude oil daily   image  Crude oil futures dailyimage EEM daily

In the short term, the intraday chart shows a reversal pattern and the support level holds firmly.  Therefore the market may continue to bounce back up tomorrow, at least it may attempt to fill the gap.  XLF is still range bounding with immediate support at ~14.4, the coming breakout is more likely at the upside.

image SPX hourlyimage XLF hourly

Summary: intermediate term uptrend may be challenged; short term bounce back may continue tomorrow.