Saturday, February 28, 2009

2009-02-27 Market Watch: weekly analysis

[Last weekly analysis].  The market is in a free fall which can be readily seen on the weekly chart.

image SPX weekly

Overview of World Markets and Sectors

The following weekly chart is a puzzle to me since the world market is still relatively steady while the US market is tanking hard.  It is really like a one man show at the time being, especially the emerging market is in fact quite strong.  From the relative strength chart, we can also see that the emerging market has a much better shape.

image world markets weekly image relative strength

image MSCI Emerging Market ETF weekly chart

The next chart shows the MSCI World/EAFE/Emerging Market, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 index.  It shows that emerging market is more resilient in this round of sell off.  One can also check out the weekly chart of EWZ (ETF for Brazilian market), CAF (China A share fund), and FXI (Hong Kong market)

image

Major indices, commodities, and US dollar are shown in the next chart.  What I see on the chart are: Nasdaq still looks better than other market (red hollow candle has a chance to reverse the trend).  US dollar looks exhausted while the commodities are still going up, what will happen to commodities should the dollar heads down in the coming weeks.  The pattern of the crude oil looks bullish although it's right at the resistance level.

image

Sector overview chart.  In term of dropping percentage the financial sector is still the most bearish sector among all give the astonishingly high ratio of single day down.  However, the sector has been calmed down in some sense although more dropping is in the sight.

image

SPX

In the beginning of this report we have seen the weekly chart.  The monthly chart looks like a disaster -- since the bear market started there is no single month when the market has any significant amount of gain.  This has surpassed any previous crisis or whatsoever downturn.

image SPX monthly image INDU monthly

The wave counting on the daily chart is very clear and there is no doubt that wave 3 of (5) is playing out.  The question is when the trend can be reversed.

image SPX dailyimage INDU daily

On the P&F chart the trend as well as the breakout are clear, however there is no reference level at the below, it remains unclear where the target is.

image

There is conclusion with respect to the target level in the near term, what we can believe is that the market is not oversold yet, and the sell off intensity has no sign of weakening.  Therefore bottom fishing should be highly dangerous.

XLF and SKF

The up trend of SKF is strong, and there is not technical setup which shows any possible sign of reversal.

image SKF hourlyimagedaily

Currency Futures and Forex

US dollar index futures: It's right below the resistance.  After so many times of attempting, this time it should have a better chance of breakout.  This is very bearish to the broad market.

image DX daily

Euro FX futures is just the opposite of US dollar but slightly off the low.

Japanese Yen Futures: a nice breakout out of the triangle pattern, unfortunately Yen is no longer the primary player in the carry trade, and the bearish trend of Yen doesn't support the stock market in any sense.

image

USD/CAD daily:

image

Commodities

Gold: on the daily chart, the pattern looks still bullish.

image /YG dailyimage monthly

Crude oil: the monthly chart shows a biggest crash ever, one can imagine that without several months of bottoming phase, no up trend could be formed.  Also there is nothing called "missing the train" because once the up trend  is established, one can buy and hold for years.  Daily chart looks very boring, on the contrary the hourly chart is full of violent up and down.  In the very near term it looks still bullish however I believe this is just temporary.

image monthlyimageCLj9 hourly

Thursday, February 26, 2009

2009-02-26 Market Watch

今天SPX指数下跌0.89%,还没有破前期的底部。这是major accumulation day之后的第二个下跌交易日。先看一下日线波浪图。目前正是(5)浪中的3小浪,这个小浪是否已经结束还不好说,但可以肯定的是,小5浪还没有开始,所以等着做空的还没有错过进入点。

image

从ES的15分钟图上看,大盘无法突破这两天的高点,破了近期支撑,上升通道也不成立了。收盘相对来说比较平静,抄底和逃跑的比较均衡。

image

金融表现比较好,全天高开低走,最终上涨1.63%。注意观察明天的XLF走势,如果收盘无法上涨,可能确认XLF短期趋势逆转为下跌。

石油表现很好,全天上涨接近5%。需要留心的是,在这个位置上是站不稳的,回调随时可能发生从而带动大盘下跌。

image CLj9, hourly chart

美元期货和欧元期货平稳,没有什么好说的。需要观察后续走势决定对大盘的进一步影响。日元期货持续下滑,可能也没有什么意义了。

30-Yr T-Bond和10-yr T-note下跌。目前已经到了支撑位置,需要观察是小幅度反弹还是继续下跌。

黄金期货下跌接近2%,在支撑线上很小幅度地弹起。综合石油期货情况,我认为这个反映市场情绪稳定,不看好崩盘的可能性。

从各个市场之间的关联上看,总的来说现在是中性的,虽然可能出现进一步的下跌(可能由石油牵头),但暂时还没有实质性的恶化。需要注意的是,如果金融和石油同时下跌,货币期货大幅度波动,需要做空不可以抄底。

蛇老大的图:

002中性,典型的盘整。看不出什么方向。003也是中性的。

image

103图:无法突破上方阻力线,STO到了要反弹的位置了。MACD卖出信号。

image

104中性,下跌可能还不到位,最后一个崩盘状的红蜡烛很吓人。不过还是按照总体中性还考虑。

image

注意QQQQ已经近期新低了。最近反复强调,风水轮流转,下一个要倒霉的是技术股。

image

看117,将来中期做空就要一直等到QQQQ风光不再。

image

280和281数据可能还没有更新好。但CPC仍然很低的话,按照蛇老大的理论,放焰火的可能性还是比较大的。

综合以上分析,短期情况稳定,大盘可能在明天某个时候开始反弹。焰火问题等蛇老大的报告。注意观察石油和金融走势,这两个是隐患。如果石油和金融稳定,大盘还可能涨上去。今天不建议盘后做空,心急抄底要等明天,或者确认石油没有事情之后再说。最好的策略还是清仓观望。

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

2009-02-25 Market Watch

image SPX daily, wave counting.

image ESH9, hourly

image CLJ9, hourly

image USD/SGD daily

image SKF hourly

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

2009-02-24 Market Watch

image ESH9 hourlyimage NQH9

image SKF, hourly

在下跌到接近11月份的低点之后,今天大盘急剧反弹,全天上涨了4%,幅度惊人。从图上看,ES还没有从下跌通道中脱离出来,刚好在通道上沿。小时图超买似乎从来没有什么好结果,所以抄底的一定要谨慎。

image

波浪图就不仔细标记了,一看就明白,目前下跌的3 of (5)似乎还没有完全结束,可能进入调整浪,经过一番调整可能进入新一轮下跌。

image

美元期货下跌,欧元上涨。日元下跌很显著,说明近期金融板块可能好转,成为下跌元凶的可能性降低。四月份石油期货今天上涨3.67%,但还没有脱离盘整区,处于超买状态,不能看底。

从SKF的小时图上看,可能有一波反弹,但下跌趋势应该是确定了的。

看蛇老大的图。001上看,应该不像是确定的底部反转,至少不是中期的(持续一个多月那种)。

002看短期反弹,所有的条件都已经具备了。

003中期信号继续卖出,但上面的短期信号都一直看反弹。

103 SPY-30minSTO的位置到了要下跌的位置。TICK有些太高。MACD买入。可能明天会下跌,但之后可能继续反弹。

104 SPY 15-min的STO/RSI到了要立刻下跌的位置。上方有阻力。可能早盘有回调。

105 是major accumulation day。

113 QQQQ短期反弹,和SPY一致。其它几个QQQQ的图和对应的SPY图很类似。

从280上看,不是中期底部。

看281,大盘可能经过反弹之后又达到短期的顶部,继续下跌了。

综上所述,大盘短期反弹确认,明天早盘可能回调,这次反弹时间不会太长,但应该利润不小。中期下跌趋势并没有结束,经过反弹可能会再次下跌。今天收盘抄底的应该套利了,短期做空的可以等明天出货,中期做空的等待机会加仓。

由于这次反弹幅度可能比较大,所以肯定有人buy dip的。记得不要贪,买ultralong的一定要设置好stop,该跑的时候要快,否则可能永远都回不来了。

Monday, February 23, 2009

2009-02-23 Market Watch

SPX今天是第六天下跌。周末期货情况有所好转,早上高开之后全部转向,美元继续上涨,欧元继续下跌,石油下跌。大盘高开低走,中间几乎没有回头,收盘743.33离11月份低点741.02已经几乎重合了。从日线图上看价格曲线和技术指标,有点像去年10月份。RSI_EMA(14)收盘是17.9,在日线图上属于严重超卖了。从波浪的内部结构上看,wave 3 of (5)暂时没有结束迹象,按照100% wave 1计算,ES要到730之下,如果这里无法止跌,可能会进一步崩盘到640左右的位置。

如今货币期货和石油期货都没有好转的迹象,加上波浪结构问题,所以抄底是完全不可取的。另外注意到下跌的领头羊由金融变成了技术股,而NQ的下跌空间还很大,很难想像后来大盘会如何发展。

Intermarket analysis今天就不必了,都是确认下跌的,没有好的迹象。成交量图形早盘情况很好,下午转向,目前很熊。看看蛇老大的图有没有什么积极的动向。

0.0.1 Market Top/Bottom Watch:VIX没有到极端地步,属于有序下跌,NYADV很低了,但注意到NYLOW/NYTOT不是很高,说明创新低的股票个数还不多,有下跌空间。BB宽度还不够高。总之,中期底部是没戏的。

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals: 大盘短期严重超卖,从盘整指标看要反弹,但现在已经脱离盘整了。蜡烛很糟糕。下跌量不大,不看好。NYADV/TICK/NYMO都超卖,可能又要在超卖状态停留一下了。

0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals:超卖,从NYADV和NYUPV上看大盘到了接近中期底部的位置。这个和0.0.1有所矛盾,BPSPX/NYSI/MACD都是卖出信号。整体权衡应该不是底部。

SPY 30-min和15-min图上都超卖,但除了短时间的反弹,看不到可靠的趋势反转信号。

1.0.5 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days:今天不算major distribution day。

2.8.0 CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio: 没有尖峰,离底部还早。2.8.1也是一样。

3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily):最近美元是元凶。这个rising wedge还没有确认破掉,暂时还不算数。

5.3.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily):今天最积极的可能是XLF没有创新低。目前仍然处于严重超卖状态。金融反弹虽然无法带动整个大盘(现在情况变了),但总是好转的迹象。

5.2.0 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Daily):注意占指数比重更大的能源板块下跌很凶猛,虽然超卖信号到处都是,但趋势信号MA和MACD没有好转迹象。

综上所述,大盘可能接近一个大反弹的状态(希望如此),但中期下跌远远没有结束,现在要把SPX的目标下调到6xx了。板块轮转,马上到技术股出血的时候了。

记得目前的中长期策略仍然是做空。没有赶上做空的得等大盘反弹后勇敢入场,已经做空的不要急于cover。