I, Thinker: 11/16/08

Saturday, November 22, 2008

2008-11-21 Market Watch: weekly analysis

Here is the last weekly analysis. Last week we witnessed another waterfall selling off. Here is how it looks like compared with the big bear markets in the past:

Market Overview

The volatility is still high but it seems reached the resistance and turning back (VIX has no demand/supply so it's inappropriate to do the technical analysis) [left]. What is really amazing is TED spread is still low [right]. I don't understand this.

[VIX, 2-year] [TED Spread, 1-year]

The following chart shows the MSCI World index, MSCI EAFE index, MSCI Emerging Market, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 index. It can be noticed that:

Mainland China market is strong.
Emerging market, Hang Kong, and Japanese market haven't broken the previous low.

Major indices, commodities, and US dollar are shown in the following chart.

Sector overview chart: As expected most sectors have a new low. However Energy and Consumer Staples, Utilities look slightly better.

Glance of major indices and bullish percent: boring chart.

Focus

SPX: [left] it is definitely wave v of 3. However it seems the last subwave v is incomplete [right].

[overview] [closeup] [broken channel?]

SKF: big megaphone pattern. I do expect it will go down significantly.

Financial sector:

[XLF, breakout->kiss back->crash]

[C, crashing...]

[JPM, broken megaphone]

[BAC, busted...]

[GS and BRK/A, Buffett is screwed]

Forex

USD/CAD: reverse down?

USD/SGD (inversed): extremely oversold. Expect to bounce back up a bit.

USD/JPY 2-hour: note the resistance.

USD/EUR: no update

Commodities

Gold (continuous adjusted): Here is the monthly chart of gold price since 1974. It seems the gold price is heading up.

Crude oil (continuous adjusted)

The following chart [left] shows the adjusted crude oil price since 1983. Maybe the next target is 35-40?

Matthew's charts

VIX long term chart: Obviously TA and TRIX signal on VIX are deadly wrong this time.

INDU - weekly long term:

INDU Weekly close up:

$CRX - Commoditiy Related Equity Index:

SSO system: broke down.

SDS system: broke down.

All those mechanical signals on the daily chart are not accurately/swiftly following the trend this time.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

2008-11-19 Market Watch

The market is approaching an intermediate term bottom.

SPX: now in sub wave v of wave 3.

(overview) (close up)

SKF: the new buy signal turned out to be true, not a whipsaw. However it's too late. Anyway the bottom is approaching, I am holding tightly.

2008-11-18 Market Watch

SPX daily: it doesn't look like the bottom is in. However it's relieved a bit. From the volume pattern there is no strong indication that the money is flowing in broad market and flowing out from UltraShort ETF's.