Sunday, August 24, 2008

Recent Rally is Caused by Oil and Yen

In fact the other part of the world has been dropping during this rally of the US market.  Here is the chart of SP500 and MSCI World ex US.

msworld

The following chart includes the performance of emerging market and far east market (developed country only), which clearly shows the recent rally in US market divergences from the world.

sc

If we put the crude oil price and the exchange rate of US dollar/Japanese Yen on the chart, we will know what the driven force of recent rally is.

sc2

Conclusion: the rally is over (or may has been over).

glance