I, Thinker: 2009-01-09 Market Watch: weekend analysis

今天原油期货下跌到前期支撑位置，大概在40.65左右，然后在这个位置徘徊了一段时间就收盘了。下周出现强烈反弹的可能性小，大幅度下跌的可能性也不大，可能是继续盘整或缓慢下跌。

/ES早上猛烈下跌之后进入Fib 38.2-50%之间的盘整区。一天时间大盘都在盘整，最后快收盘的时候放量突破。但还没有来得及找下一个支承点就收盘了。目前技术指标没有超卖，没有好的支撑，从measured move的角度看，要继续下跌到875左右。

XLF突破盘整区继续下跌，还没有达到下面的支撑位置11.5左右。即使到了那里，经过盘整，继续突破的可能性也很大。XLF是前段时间上涨过程中保持lower high, lower low的板块，所以这次下跌它首当其冲。

值得注意的是，SKF前段时间走高时成交量缩小，这次则放大。从量价关系上看，有资金吃进SKF已经花了一个月的时间了。

期货收盘只见逃跑的，不见抄底的。可见小妞妞们已经害怕了。大小资金对下周普遍不看好。万一有反弹，很可能还是在/TF也就是Russell2000上。但是，绝对不要报任何希望。

美元有少许反弹，黄金没有大的动静。T-note/T-bond盘整。forex确认了目前的跌势，尤其是EUR/USD的暴跌，更是给目前的形势做了很好的印证。

SPX和各大指数的上升趋势线被打破，根据蛇老大的1:1规则，下跌能量远大于上涨（不用规则也看的出，呵呵）。因此，对后市不看好。

蛇老大的图：

001: 从信号上看，中期顶部基本确认了。
002： RSI/STO中性，没有超卖，NYMO超买，指向进一步下跌。
003：中期信号指向进一步下跌，MACD还是买入信号，但从histogram上看，转向是迟早的事情。
1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min) 信号中性，下面的MACD并不准，因为是盘整区的缘故，另外转向也是迟早的事情。
1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min) 中性，成交量指向进一步下跌。
1.0.7 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (GMMA) 那一堆粉红线有效阻挡了指数上升，阻力太大了。
2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily) MACD买入信号，没有超买，有上升空间。我不主张过渡分析VIX，随便看看没事的。
2.8.0 CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio 中期顶部确认。

结论：不要对大盘的上涨抱有幻想了。目前是逢高做空的时间。建议保留所有看跌仓位，由短期转为中期持有，直到中期信号转向为止。

Last weekly analysis. In this week the market went up in the first two days and then pulled back after it got extremely overbought. Very likely the intermediate top has passed and the pullback could become a trend reversal.

Overview of World Markets and Sectors

On the following weekly chart, we can see that US market leads the world. It won't be a surprise if the other parts of the world follow US market to go south. From the relative strengths of different markets, the emerging market shows larger volatility, which could act as a good candidate of short sell while the whole world is sinking.

(world market weekly) (relative strength)

The next chart shows the MSCI World/EAFE/Emerging Market, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 index. Currently all markets are still in a stage of recovering from the November low, and it is not too bearish at the moment.

Major indices, commodities, and US dollar are shown in the next chart. The market is really at an edge where further down will confirm the trend reversal.

Sector overview chart. XLF is still the weakest, and XLV/XLY are relatively more bullish.

SPX

In term of wave counting, the analysis in the last week is still valid. The estimation of the next stop was 946, actually it's 943.85. Should the market goes back to the original track in the upper half of the next week, original target could be still reachable. Therefore, the market direction in the next week is critical for judging the mid-term trend.

P&F chart isn't very interesting. Skipped.

The pullback target of 885-900 given in the last week has reached like a magic. On the hourly chart, the downtrend is weakening but it's not over yet. I would give 10 points of downside space, and then consolidation or rally considering the strong market internal strength. This scenario will be invalidated once SPX goes below 880 decisively.

XLF and SKF

XLF is weaker than my original observation and it is now at the cliff. The Friday close is not very far from the support, but the support will likely break at the downside after so many times of tampering.