[Last weekly analysis.] The massive bear market rally has been lasted for six consecutive weeks. Now SPX has gone back to the previous consolidation region. If the market can decisively break out above the current resistance, EMA(13) at 925 to 945 will be the next target.
Overview of World Markets and Sectors
The entire world is going straight up while the emerging market is leading.
The next chart shows the MSCI World/EAFE/Emerging Market, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 index. All markets are still very bullish, and up trend has no sign of potential reversal at the moment.
Major indices, commodities, and US dollar are shown in the next chart. Gold is bearish, US dollar starts to recover, and commodities cannot make a higher high.
Sector overview chart. Energy sector is lagging behind, other sectors are bullish.
SPX
The wave counting is still the same, and the upside target is about 950. Over the short term, the rising wedge as well as the negative divergence on RSI should be resolved soon. My expectation is a moderate pullback to form an ascending channel.
XLF and SKF
SKF is a falling knife over the intermediate term. Technically the uptrend of XLF is not completed yet.
Currency Futures and Forex
US dollar index: the trend is confirmed to be up although it hits a resistance now.
USD/SGD: consolidation and the direction unknown. If the support holds, it should go up again.
USD/CAD: no update.
EUR/USD: no update. In the short term the downtrend should continue.
Commodities
Crude oil: unable to break out $55 and the consolidation/pullback will last for a while.
Gold: down trend.
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