Monday, November 30, 2009

Market Update

Technically bears have not struck back to the market yet, at least for now.   On the following P&F chart, what we can see is still higher high and higher low, which is not even a major pullback.  After the last Major Distribution Day, the market bounced back a little today, while the volume shows that there are still many people buying dips.  On the SPX daily chart, negative divergence on most technical indicators has been there for several weeks but so far all pullbacks are gifts to bulls.  Take a closer look on the hourly chart, the current pattern is either a flag of consolidation or Header & Shoulders, depending on which side the breakout will be.

image SPX P&F Chartimage SPX hourly

The triangle pattern on XLF was broken at the lower edge (14.54), today it went back above this support/resistance and so negated the previous breakout.  Personally I think 14.54 will become a support in the near future.

image XLF hourlyimage FAZ hourly

No update to the US dollar index chart.  Currently there is no sign of the downtrend being ended.  From the following sector candle glance chart, we can also see that the broad market looks healthy, since there is no sign of money flowing into defensive sectors.

image

In summary the near term and intermediate term outlook are bullish, and personally I think last Friday low will be a significant swing low.

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