Sunday, March 09, 2008

Mar8 weekly chart reading: $COMPQ


Weekly chart:
  • The intermediate uptrend from July 2006 was inversed in the end of 2007. At that point both RSI and STO indicated a weak momentum. Later that trend line has never been revisited.
  • The triangle pattern started in the beginning of this year was broken out in the last week of Feb.
  • Now it's standing on the long term up trend started in Aug 2005. There is no sign of reversal, so this trend line will likely be broken later.


From the triangle pattern it won't be a surprise if NASDAQ goes down to 2000 -- 2050. Now RSI is close to oversold level, and STO is below 30, OBV is going down as well. Therefore it's not the best time to open the short/put position for short-term profit, as the market might have a upside correction any time according to STO. On the other hand, reversal of down trend is unlikely.


Daily chart:
  • The obviously triangle pattern was broken in the end of the last month.
  • Three indicators show a bearish pattern, but look like approaching to a near term bottom. A upside correction is expected, but no very significant.
It seems it's better to wait a few days until the long term trend line on the weekly chart is broken. From weekly chart it seems people have little interest to test the broken trend line and the downward movement is quite straightforward, is this caused by over-valuation of the entire technical sector so people want to lock the profit and get out as soon as possible? I don't know.

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