Saturday, October 04, 2008

2008-10-03 Market Watch (Weekend)

This is the update to the last weekly analysis.

SPX daily:

spx-d

Same chart, same outlook.  I expect the SPX go down a bit to 1070+ and then rise to ~1200.

SPX 60-min:

spx-60m

One more up and down, and then the rally will start soon.

XLF daily:

xlf-d

Last week, I said the turning point of SPX/XLF would be this Friday.  It seems it will be postponed to the beginning of the next week.

XLF 60-min:

xlf-60m

Basic strategy: buy UYG on the dip, and short SKF if it goes too high.  At the moment, there is no significant difference between SKF and ^SKF-IV.

QQQQ daily:

qqqq

The target was reached today.  I expect a rally very soon, which could be earlier than SPX.

QQQQ 60-min:

qqqq-60

The target is downgraded to 41.5--42.

$RUT daily:

rut-d

----

No chart for SSCC/TAN/POT/EWZ.  STP looks bullish.

----

Overview of mid-term indicators and major indices:

image

Credit rsk and SPX:

credit

The risk is not at the historical level but it is very high.  It is unimaginable if it goes up any further up.

 Market glance:

image

$INDU is relatively strong.  $RUT is very weak.  Transportation hit a new low again.  Commodities sold off.  US dollar is very strong.

Sector glance:

image

Financial sector is the strongest.  XLP (Consumer Staples) is also very strong.

Bullish percent indices:

image

----

Retail-Apparel looked good in the last week, now it doesn't.

Banks-Money Center is bullish:

image

Banks-Regional is bullish:

image

----

SPX descending channel:

spx-ch

XLF ascending channel:

xlf-ch

QQQQ channels:

qqqq-ch

No comments: